First thoughts: Phoebe is playing one of the best runs from the bottom ever. It is a streak that deserves attention. For the last four episodes, she has been the best player, and should have been the target each time, and yet, she survives. Possibly the best streak since Vanuatu. Let's see how she goes without an idol.
Craig as the target? Maybe that was a mistake. It ensures they will be back at tribal next time, where she has to be back in the mix as the boot. If she went Sue, maybe some youth bonding could happen. Sue will never trust her. Conner, Kate, even Craig may have worked with her, with numbers down and Sue gone. Now, she needs to out charisma Sue next episode.
Like virginity, though, the first transgression in an alliance is the hardest, but once it has happened, the alliance is never quite the same. Voting out Andrew cracked the seal. Kate may choose Phoebe and Kristy over old Sue and Saanapu boy Connor.
Long-term, I'm not sure of Phoebe's viability. Everyone must see her as a threat - except Kristy, who would probably follow her all the way to the end, and then lose to her. It's a long road, though.
Come the merge, current Vavau will split, reinforcing whatever faction of Saanapu pleases them best. The cracks over there are starting to show, and the merge won't be a pagonging. Maybe she can slip through.
An underdogs alliance is one way - Jenna Louis, Kylie, Matt, Kate, Kristy, maybe Connor... There are people who feel on the outs.
A tribe that stays together, come what may, who will never turn on each other, like the great band of misfits on Panama, can achieve greatness. The Vavau 5 had that chance, but blew it. Now, Phoebe has gotten rid of her greatest competition. She can probably manipulate soft-hearted Connor easily enough. And to get out Sue... There are arguments to be made to Kate and C. She may have just flipped herself from 6 to 1.
This is a truly great 4 episode run. One of the best.