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Winner's Betting Odds

jb4493 said:
Well tonight it pays off! I cant see him not winning so I will be happy for you at least haha. :)
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Yay! I'm still not confident though, but we'll see if others have enjoyed watching him as much as some of us on this forum :)
 
Mrs Butterface said:
Ok [MENTION=35834]Sweet_Geek[/MENTION] so based on the last update I've just posted that means that no one has placed a bet at Sportingbet/Centrebet that's big enough to move the odds (or maybe no one's placed one at all). Whereas people have placed bets on Jade and possibly to a lesser extent Tim at Sportsbet which have caused Jade's odds to improve and Tahan's drop. Hope that helps a bit.
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Freaking legend you are! That makes so much more sense.
 
Mrs Butterface said:
I actually think the winner has been decided at this point whomever it may be. If they kept voting open for the first part of the live show tonight when people made a last minute flurry of bets based on what they see then I wouldn't think that way. But I have my doubts at how many people know voting closes at 6pm tonight considering very few did on Monday.
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Doesn't voting close at 8pm tonight?
 
Why does everyone trust odds? All it proves is how much money people have betted and who they 'think' will win. Haven't people learnt their lesson after Ben?
 
natalia said:
Yay! I'm still not confident though, but we'll see if others have enjoyed watching him as much as some of us on this forum :)
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He seems to be universally popular here on facebook, twitter and betting. So I am thinking its hard for him not to win. lol

I hope you enjoy the victory! Its especially sweeter when you think its not going to happen. :)
 
jb4493 said:
He seems to be universally popular here on facebook, twitter and betting. So I am thinking its hard for him not to win. lol

I hope you enjoy the victory! Its especially sweeter when you think its not going to happen. :)
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LOL just like how I'm thinking I'm going to uni fail my exams. If I pass I'll be the happiest girl alive for that day.
 
Splashedblue said:
Why does everyone trust odds? All it proves is how much money people have betted and who they 'think' will win. Haven't people learnt their lesson after Ben?
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Well I watch them with sporting events and stuff.
You'll see the odds change when there's info about a team.

In a game an coming back from injury player is going to be in the line up, then the odds will increase dramatically...so usually when odds change it's because the bookies are given information.
That's how I've followed it anyhow.
 
Sorceress said:
Well I watch them with sporting events and stuff.
You'll see the odds change when there's info about a team.

In a game an coming back from injury player is going to be in the line up, then the odds will increase dramatically...so usually when odds change it's because the bookies are given information.
That's how I've followed it anyhow.
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You're killing me with this information!
 
OMG thankyou to everyone here! I totally freaked out about the odds before!


Although I still think tahan will come third......................
 
I don't think winner's odds have ever been wrong before (they were correct last year, Ben was 1.60 so Tim's 2.50 is even surer).
 
Sweet_Geek said:
You're killing me with this information!
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LOL You shouldn't read my post it didn't really make sense.
Basically, I think if someone starts to get long odds (like 5 bucks is starting to get long) then they're getting info that's saying that the other two are ahead.

It's not meant to make Tahan fans mad, though I hope they're mad because it means they might turn it around.
 
Sweet_Geek said:
You're killing me with this information!
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The good thing about a small market like this is that there are only so many ways for a book to get info about the market. Either someone will leak them the voting % from Salmat (and I find that extremely difficult to believe that someone will risk their job at this point) and they scan for whatever info they can. But there really isn't much info to get other than what people are saying on social media and we all know posts don't necessarily = votes. I don't think any fan should feel confident or dismayed by what happens to the odds at all today. Not saying Tim won't win (and I f'n hope he does) but we have no idea who is placing votes and how many.
 
Sorceress said:
Well I watch them with sporting events and stuff.
You'll see the odds change when there's info about a team.

In a game an coming back from injury player is going to be in the line up, then the odds will increase dramatically...so usually when odds change it's because the bookies are given information.
That's how I've followed it anyhow.
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This is all true and correct but it doesn't apply for BB betting. The market is purely an indication of how the public sees it.
 
Sorceress said:
So the bookies don't get tips from insiders?
If so then I dunno what to think.
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Almost certainly not. It's just a reflection of the bets the bookies are receiving in order to balance the books on their end. Which is why a small market like BB fluctuates so much so quickly - it doesn't take much money to shift the odds significantly.
 
I just put a bet on Tahan. Let's see if her odds change. Lolololololollll
 
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