Spencer was in with a small chance until the tribal council when he made the threat to Jeremy about him going to the house and making sure Kelley would win if he didn't take him through. The jury would have thought "oh yeah, you little dipshit, don't even try that". I think Jeremy would have won without the sob story, but it was the final nail in the coffin for Spencer. Tasha never really stood a chance because her game just wasn't visible enough - no immunity wins, no power plays.
Amazing to think that if Spencer had won that last immunity challenge, Kelley most likely would have won the whole thing, not for playing a strong game, but for having a bitchy little girl clique.
I was really hoping for Keith to make it, couldn't believe he offered to walk for Kimmi. She would have let him too, which would have served as her final nail. No one would have voted for a charity case who didn't earn her place there fair and square.