For me, I think Jay wins if they are stupid enough to let him make FTC, or if he manages to win his way there. I don't see who Bret beats - maybe Hannah, but if Hannah pulls a Psycho Kristie she could pull it out. Ken seems to be an arrogant, self-important sort of guy, and I don't think anyone really likes him, except Dave and Hannah, so I don't see how he wins.
Jay, though, has all his buddies on the jury. He has a 'resume' of comp wins and big moves and savvy, playing from the bottom utr stuff. He is a funny, charismatic dude too, so he could charm a few votes. Taylor, Michelle, Will and potentially Sunday (if Bret goes) are his, and there's no reason for anyone else not to vote for him.
David has a rep as a strategist, and has clearly got his nerd mojo working on Hannah. People may have been burnt by David, but he wears the Strategist thing so blatantly that, like Cochran 2.0, you can't be mad at him. Fish gonna swim, bird gonna fly. He beats everyone but Jay, unless Adam gives an amazing speach.
Adam has a shot, if he talks a good game.
Ken has Buckley's. Emotionally unintelligent honourable people do about as well as Lee did.
Hannah - could beat Ken and Bret. Has to talk it well though.
To be honest, as long as the cop doesn't win, I'm OK with any of them. I've enjoyed this season. It is a gamebot era game with little nastiness and real characters.