R
riddim
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I think he is banking on an Estelle vs Ben type situation to get him ahead. Neither Estelle or Ben would have got as far as they did without the other. Ben going against Estelle made people want to save her to spite him, the more Estelle survived, the more people threw their support behind anybody but her to win. Estelle was regularly booed by the eviction crowds when she survived, but she still survived.
Tully survived that double eviction. That's enough for Tim to know that she has support out there, enough support to place her above two others in a pool of 6. Make Tully the enemy and the centre of attention, and maybe she'll get enough support to keep her in in spite of all the people who hate her. Keep Tully in and make her your nemesis and suddenly all that hatred for her becomes your support. Vote for neutrals who cannot be manipulated like the others and who therefore pose a threat to your source of power alongside your emotionally manipulable Tully and watch them get evicted - it worked with Xavier (you got that, Tully?), now maybe it can work this week with Caleb.
Tully is only useful to Tim when she gives him that moody reaction. It's what he uses to get the public on his side. What he's hoping for is that the public will think of him as the hero who gives the disliked Tully her comeuppance, but that she'll still earn enough support from all the attention to keep her in the house where she is available and ready to exploit.
I like your theory, and generally read your posts with a great deal of interest. I'm going to have to disagree with this, though.
The sticking point for me is that it presumes Tim has a long-term plan which is that narrow. I honestly think he is completely winging it day to day, just taking whatever opportunities the HMs give him. Last night, when he set Tully up, he was quietly in the bedroom by himself - it was Tully who came in to have a whinge and he just soft-pitched a vague ...something... her.
And here's the other thing - i'm not entirely convinced Tim heard much of anything. I think he might have had a vague realisation they (Drew and Jade) were having a D&M with regard to Tully, but he had nothing specific - and that fed into the opportunity perfectly, because Tully filled in the blanks with the worst possible scenario.
That example aside, I think if the "me vs. tully" thing built up, he'd run with it, but I don't think he's seeking it in pursuit of other opportunities, nor do I think he has it particularly in mind long-term. In fact, I don't think he has anything in mind long-term except to sow chaos and distrust to a) keep the other HMs distracted and off their own games, and b) entertain the bejeezus out of the voters who will keep him in.
I will note, however, that he does seem crafty enough to have thought that particular scenario through - so in that sense, your deep strategy analysis is probably on the radar for him, and certainly a possibility I hadn't specifically considered.