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Betting Odds 2014

tedfthis said:
For Lawsons odds to fall so dramatically, something happened, that people in the know, know about, to cause a shift like that.
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Precisely !!
With no other info since last week, the middle of the week, why on earth would lawson change odds now? At the height of clawson saga he was steady. It stinks. Information is power... There is so so much we know nothing about. If you vote you are blind person throwing money into a channel 9 drain. If u bet, follow the bookies trends; they are seldom wrong and would not be in business if they just gave $$$ away, which they do not!
 
AntiGretel said:
Precisely !!
With no other info since last week, the middle of the week, why on earth would lawson change odds now? At the height of clawson saga he was steady. It stinks. Information is power... There is so so much we know nothing about. If you vote you are blind person throwing money into a channel 9 drain. If u bet, follow the bookies trends; they are seldom wg and would not be in business if they just gave $$$ away, which they do not!
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That's not true though. He hasn't been up for eviction since the height of the cheating scandal. The last time he was up was three weeks ago when some were still convinced they didn't do anything in the Sanctuary.

The overall winner odds are completely different to the eviction odds. As we've pointed out many times in this thread, you can have someone as the favourite to go in the eviction odds and yet they're still beating others to win the whole show. ie Aisha. She's ahead of Leo to go home this week yet she's also $16 better at a chance of winning.

Y'all need to learn how to read the odds and learn how $ affects the movement. There hasn't been a show for how many days now but when I put a bet on Priya her odds dropped. That's not inside knowledge. It's simply $ moving the odds.

Again - Jason was the second favourite to win until he was evicted. And the least likely to be evicted when he was.
 
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Just to reiterate -

Jason's closing odds when he was evicted the 2nd night

Sportsbet

Sandra - $1.20
Ryan - $4.75
David - $5.00
Priya - $11.00
Jason - $15.00

His overall winner odds


Sportingbet - Overall Winners Market

Skye $2.75
Jason $5
Ryan $5.50
Travis $9
Priya $10
David $12
Lawson $13
Aisha $15
Leo $19
Cat $21
Marina $22
 
Mrs Butterface said:
That's not true though. He hasn't been up for eviction since the height of the cheating scandal. The last time he was up was three weeks ago when some were still convinced they didn't do anything in the Sanctuary.

The overall winner odds are completely different to the eviction odds. As we've pointed out many times in this thread, you can have someone has the favourite to go in the eviction odds and yet they're still beating others to win the whole show. ie Aisha. She's ahead of Leo to go home this week yet she's also $16 better at a chance of winning.

Y'all need to learn how to read the odds and learn how $ affects the movement. There hasn't been a show for how many days now but when I put a bet on Priya her odds dropped. That's not inside knowledge. It's simply $ moving the odds.

Again - Jason was the second favourite to win until he was evicted. And the least likely to be evicted when he was.
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The initial odds are set by the odds makers, but subsequent odds are set by the bettors. At least that is how horseracing works here. I'm assuming big brother is the same? There have to be very few bettors, relatively, so one person can make a difference fairly easily.
 
Rose711 said:
The initial odds are set by the odds makers, but subsequent odds are set by the bettors. At least that is how horseracing works here. I'm assuming big brother is the same? There have to be very few bettors, relatively, so one person can make a difference fairly easily.
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Yep, it's the same way it works here. Although a friend of mine who works at Sportingbet said they do look at who was the most and least saved to adjust their overall winner market accordingly because they were the only two legit #s for sure. That's why I randomly asked Consuela that question to make sure. But again it makes sense why the overall winner markets are taken off everywhere after an eviction and then go back up yet the second eviction odds never do.

But the eviction market is purely a bettors market in that it's $ driving it. Same as how Tim wrote the article on here referencing how was Lawson still considered a favourite to win- I responded that he'd only been up for eviction once before that and so whatever $ they'd taken in on him pre Cat had helped him stay near the front because they don't watch the fricken show and have nothing else to go on. And really at the start, he was a favourite to win. So without any eviction results why would his odds change? If any of them had been watching and knew about the Cat situation, or even dared to take a peek online, or better yet had inside info, obviously his odds would've tumbled.

Again guys, think about who can bet. It's not the tweens and teens. And look at Jason's results for example. Least likely to go and second favourite to win but booted on the second night.
 
I feel that while the odds and such fluctuate according to evictions etc, at this point, now that all of the originals are up at once and presumably at least two of the newbies go soon, it's still a bit eeny, meeny, miny, mo.
 
My theory is that the edit controls the vote because few of these fan bases will last through thick and thin.
So what do I think? If I were betting I would bet Leo, because even Skye was shown forgetting about him,
Cat because she's invisible (don't know what 4Chan are doing here)
and Lawson, because of the play by Skye calling him out about his girlfriend and his general dismissal of Cat being gone giving him a new energy.

David, his fan base may be shifting completely to Priya after last week and I thought he looked boring this week.

Who is in the middle:
Aisha and Travis, Priya.

Who are safe?
Skye, Ryan

The problem is that the fanbases overlap. Mrs. B is right that the bettors and the majority of the voters are two different, non-overlapping groups.
If I had to choose one to bet it's Leo all the way. The angry over eaters don't keep fans.
 
Khun Khun said:
I feel that while the odds and such fluctuate according to evictions etc, at this point, now that all of the originals are up at once and presumably at least two of the newbies go soon, it's still a bit eeny, meeny, miny, mo.
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It totally is! And again, these markets are just for the first eviction and if 8 weeks history this year is to go by, they won't open them up for the second (or third).

So you have to peg off the first out of potentially 3 to go home. First week I haven't placed a bet on the eviction market and won't.
 
Mrs Butterface said:
Good thing is we'll know tomorrow just how sound that theory is. If he's evicted first - which is all these odds are for - then we can start to assume something happened. If he's not, then it's time to ditch that theory.
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I would put a few dollars on Leo at $4 and $5
But, please, no one take this as advice. I'm not encouraging betting, and I'm not even betting, just playing along.

I hope I'm wrong and Lawson goes. Can't wait for his shiny head to be crossed out.Does he have any fans left? That's the question.
 
Rose711 said:
I would put a few dollars on Leo at $4 and $5
But, please, no one take this as advice. I'm not encouraging betting, and I'm not even betting, just playing along.

I hope I'm wrong and Lawson goes. Can't wait for his shiny head to be crossed out.Does he have any fans left? That's the question.
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Is Cat running in the Melbourne Cup 2mor?
 
AntiGretel said:
Is Cat running in the Melbourne Cup 2mor?
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Lol. Just don't know if 4Chan is as bored with her as the rest of us are sick of seeing her moping face. Even Lawson feels more energized when she's gone, maybe they do as well.
 
Rose711 said:
I would put a few dollars on Leo at $4 and $5
But, please, no one take this as advice. I'm not encouraging betting, and I'm not even betting, just playing along.

I hope I'm wrong and Lawson goes. Can't wait for his shiny head to be crossed out.Does he have any fans left? That's the question.
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The problem is the odds are only for the first to go.

So the first week when the pairs were split, I knew Katie was going to go. Problem was for me Jake went the night before and the odds don't open up for the second night. So I lost my first night bet and couldn't make it back.

Second week in here I said it'd be Jake but who knows if he'd go first and after the previous week I was too scared to try to guess. Of course Jake goes first and Lisa second.

Since then I've won with Sandra and Marina before both of their odds plumeted but when it's a double, let alone a triple, to pick the first out is extremely hard.

Leo has his gay base from before BB plus the Skye/Leo fans plus some N.Americans in Australia who are watching.

Too hard for me to pick first to go this time. :(
 
Rose711 said:
Lol. Just don't know if 4Chan is as bored with her as the rest of us are sick of seeing her moping face. Even Lawson feels more energized when she's gone, maybe they do as well.
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They only wanted to rig HOH to see what would happen in the Sanc. Once that happened, several (of a very small group to begin with) admitted they couldn't care less about Clawson.
They like the idea of controlling outcomes but because very few there will actually talk BBAU or care - especially after Operation Waifu ended - , that's why they show up here. A bit sad tbh
 
Mrs Butterface said:
The problem is the odds are only for the first to go.

So the first week when the pairs were split, I knew Katie was going to go. Problem was for me Jake went the night before and the odds don't open up for the second night. So I lost my first night bet and couldn't make it back.

Second week in here I said it'd be Jake but who knows if he'd go first and after the previous week I was too scared to try to guess. Of course Jake goes first and Lisa second.

Since then I've won with Sandra and Marina before both of their odds plumeted but when it's a double, let alone a triple, to pick the first out is extremely hard.

Leo has his gay base from before BB plus the Skye/Leo fans plus some N.Americans in Australia who are watching.

Too hard for me to pick first to go this time. :(
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Marina to be evicted @$2.25 was better than lotto.
 
Centrebet & Sportingbet - Next Eviction

Lawson - 1.80
Aisha - 2.40 (was 2.50)
Leo - 4.00
Cat 13.00
Priya - 13.00
David - 23.00
Travis - 29.00
Ryan - 34.00
Skye - 41.00

Sportsbet - Next Eviction

Lawson - 2.00 (was 1.85)
Aisha - 2.75 (was 2.50)
Leo - 4.00 (was 5.00)
Priya - 7.00 (was 9.00)
Cat - 10.00 (was 12.00)
David - 19.00
Travis - 26.00
Ryan - 34.00
Skye - 41.00
 
They will want a boy evicted next, so probably Lawson.
Whoever goes tomorrow night, who can tell? After tonight's eviction, surely they will reopen the voting lines and the voting board will be reset. So whoever else gets a bad edit tonight could be in trouble - for instance, if Cat is taking badly Lawson going, that might count against her tomorrow night.
 
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