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4th Eviction Betting Odds

At the moment Tully and Tim are the ones keeping the show interesting. Tahan is dumb..but im starting to like her a bit. Matt is going to piss people off soon.
Caleb will have Zero effect on the house in the coming weeks. He needs to go.
To remove tim or tully would be terrible for the show.
Without them it would be one big koombyeyah happy get together.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
 
White Will Smith said:
Caleb has the shortest odds to be evicted (at time of posting this) at $1.80, yet his odds to win are sixth shortest, at $11.00!

On the odds to win, Tahan, Jade and Tully all have wider odds than Caleb ($21, $34 and $34 respectively)
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I've thought all week Caleb was most at risk so that wasn't too surprising. The winners odds though just show how bookies don't really understand reality TV. They have Heidi as the most likely woman to win (full odds here) and from discussion here we know there is no chance of that happening. Indeed they have all the blokes having a better chance of winning than any of the women - don't think that's the case at all IMO, but I can understand how more money is put on the men than the women. Tahan at $21 would be a fantastic bet IMO - I can only see her getting stronger and stronger as weeks go on, especially if the sugar sisters get evicted sooner rather than later.
 
Brekkie said:
I've thought all week Caleb was most at risk so that wasn't too surprising. The winners odds though just show how bookies don't really understand reality TV.
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- what you're missing here Brekkie is the actual book. The bookies job is to have a book where their risk is minimal for each housemate. The odds don't necessarily always reflect the bookies understanding of, or even opinion, but quite often the amount of money they are holding on each person. I think it's fair to see they have a better understanding of Reality TV betting than anybody else.
 
White Will Smith said:
Caleb has the shortest odds to be evicted (at time of posting this) at $1.80, yet his odds to win are sixth shortest, at $11.00!

On the odds to win, Tahan, Jade and Tully all have wider odds than Caleb ($21, $34 and $34 respectively)
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- There was a week last year where Ben was a short priced favourite to go home and only a late rally by his supporters saved him - he was out to$15 to win.
 
Cazzychaps said:
I picked Caleb a couple of days ago. I think he's the most boring of those up. Even Tully's tantrums are better than watching Caleb. Therefore I think the odds are correct. But, I think the housemates will be HUGELY shocked if he does go. They are not expecting this at all - even Tim. It would be interesting to see their reactions should this be the case.
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Tim would definitely expect it. His rock game would've noted that the ones with the least drama who havent contributed a lot have gone. Thats why he put himself up. Because he said it before - he wants to eliminate the meatheads. He's banking on either caleb or ed going.

Even angering up Tahan as he's done over the weekend would score her airtime. He has gotten all the evictees some attention except the meatheads. Pretty sure that was his 'trick'.
 
Max Power said:
She's gotten upset easily a few times but I don't think you could say she throws tantrums, unless your measure of a 'tantrum' is set pretty damn low.
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She doesn't throw tantrums?! Whenever something doesn't go her way she storms off, throws clothes around and huffs and puffs. I think it's safe to say that's a tantrum.. a pretty bloody big one.
 
markie_mark23 said:
It will great TV when Caleb goes. The HMs will ALL be in shock and will have to re-think their strategy.
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I'm thinking the same thing, although I don't dislike Caleb. They won't be expecting one of the "meatheads" to go yet. Like how they think Matt is a favourite, but he didn't do that great in the public voting tally when he was nominated.
 
Mademoiselle said:
I'm thinking the same thing, although I don't dislike Caleb. They won't be expecting one of the "meatheads" to go yet. Like how they think Matt is a favourite, but he didn't do that great in the public voting tally when he was nominated.
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I think the main reason they think he is fave because of the big cheers he got alongside Ben when he was up in the double, and he did do great in the voting there (Sonia even told Xavier that Ben and Matt kept fighting it out for first).
 
Pretty sure betting for elimination is closed there (It is on sportingbet) and has been the case 5-6 hours prior to elimination in the past too.
 
keke said:
I don't think Tim will be shocked. He's aiming for Ed but he must have considered the possibility of Caleb going.
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I don't think Tim aimed for Ed and I'm not even convinced Tim aimed for Tully.

To use a metaphor, I think Tully put herself in the firing line and Tim pulled the trigger psychologically by saving Mykkayla and the viewer are the ones that could sacrifice Ed or Caleb (or someone else) to save Tully.
 
Well I got in a decent bet on Ed and Caleb at $7.50 and a lower bet on Tahan at $7.50.

Feeling fairly confident I'll have a decent profit from that.
 
SoshiMECH said:
I don't think Tim aimed for Ed and I'm not even convinced Tim aimed for Tully.

To use a metaphor, I think Tully put herself in the firing line and Tim pulled the trigger psychologically by saving Mykkayla and the viewer are the ones that could sacrifice Ed or Caleb (or someone else) to save Tully.
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I think that we can be certain that Tim is not aiming for Tully. I think its Ed because of what he has been saying. But it could be anyone of the 'meatheads'.
 
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