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THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT: Who would have won if...

Khun Khun said:
I think you are correct re Drew on both counts. As the Drully thing went on for some time and we got too much of it, could the same be said for Clawson? Would either of them have gone much further without the hookup?
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I think if not for the hook-up, Cat would have gone much earlier (as she, or her edit at least, was very boring & offered nothing beyond Clawson) and Lawson would have made top 5 in place of Dave.
 
kbomb247 said:
Hahaha. I don't get the whole lights-off, body hiding thing at ALL. If I'm comfortable or drunk enough to let someone in my bed, I either a)don't care because I won't see them after the morning or b)am happy for him or her to take me as I am, warts & all.
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i am not that confident!! Lucky you. Plus I don't even think my hubby would want to see me with the lights on. Probably naked or otherwise. But then I feel the same about his bod. HaHa. So its lights off for us. Isn't that terrible.:)
 
kbomb247 said:
I think if not for the hook-up, Cat would have gone much earlier (as she, or her edit at least, was very boring & offered nothing beyond Clawson) and Lawson would have made top 5 in place of Dave.
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No way, Lawson's hair (and the magic) was enough for me to want him gone before even Dion (not that I remember Dion much). Cat didnt bother me one way or the other until she started making out with that goose. And I reckon Dave should have been there at the end. Loved his honesty:):)
 
I often talk about the Butterfly Theory when watching the show. I love the detailed explanation and agree with all of them.
kbomb247 said:
I think if not for the hook-up, Cat would have gone much earlier (as she, or her edit at least, was very boring & offered nothing beyond Clawson) and Lawson would have made top 5 in place of Dave.
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Yeah I definitely agree. The Catdog airtime saved Cat, but ruined Lawson. I had a bet on Lawson to win in the first fortnight of BB and was pissed when he started confessing his feelings for Cat. All he had to do was politely stay away from Cat and he would have made it to the top 5 at least. Oh and a little less of this -
tumblr_ncjg3pRasa1qjbmuko1_500.gif
 
I think in BB2012, it would've been a much different end to the series had Josh's brother not tragically passed away.

For example, Sam would've left that week - meaning Layla wouldn't have had her second showmance and I think she would've missed the finale. Josh complimented Michael and Stacey really well, the three of them together were all fun good people so when Josh left, it turned into a bitch fest with Ben in the mix and they had the fun times, which helped Ben win, but they seemed a little more negative.

I wonder what would have happened, had Ben gone in the "closest Big Brother eviction ever" when he beat out Ryan (W2) by 1%?
 
the Theorist said:
Okay, so I have an interesting prospect to present to you all. This is something that I've wondered for a while now and it would be fascinating to hear other people's thoughts on it.

As it stands, there are three individual incidents that occurred during three separate seasons of Big Brother Australia that, in my opinion, altered the succeeding outcome of each year. All of these events materialised outside of the producers' control and had they not occurred I truly believe we might've seen a slightly different turn of events for the remainder of each season (i.e. the order of evictees and in some cases even a completely different winner).

For those unfamiliar with the term, the "Butterfly Effect" is used in chaos theory and refers to a single occurrence that changes the course of future events, creating a significantly different outcome than what would have originally occurred without it. Or in other words, an action that redefines the future.

I believe these unforeseen events notably changed the show during their respective seasons:
  • BB04: Bree's incorrect eviction.
  • BB06: The "turkey slap" controversy.
  • BB09: Josh exiting due to the sudden death of his brother.
I'll discuss my thoughts on each one individually in the next post.
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BB14: If Ryan's homophobic humour was aired during live feed...
 
Khun Khun said:
Yes, lol, that's me too. That's one of the aging issues I have. A friend of mine is 60 today and while we had an innocent (odd sounding but that is what it was) one night stand back when I was 21 or 22 and he was 29 or 30 the reconnection last year and far from innocent encounter was a bit of a wake up call in regards to the ravages of time. We ain't what we used to be and a lot of memories have been eroded and confined to that - memory.
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bottom line, can you still suck a good D, yes or no?
 
the Theorist said:
BB04:
Bree was wrongly evicted in Week 10 due to a vote counting error instead of Wesley. When she was put back into the house, Bree suffered emotionally with the added pressure that she had a slight advantage in the game after being outside for a few hours and her fellow HM's theorised that it would alter the way Bree portrayed herself. Wesley was quoted as saying: "They've gone out there now and shown all the best parts of Bree [...] so now they're gonna bring into the house this brand new, great girl; she might be a new crowd favourite." And Paul was spot-on by stating that: "She's the most popular face in the country at the moment; she's the poor girl who got evicted and wasn't meant to be."

As it turned out, Bree wasn't evicted again until Finale night when she became runner-up of the season. I feel that what happened here was a case of sympathy voting and for the fact that because she'd already been evicted once (even in error) people weren't going to let her go again while there were others still in the house who hadn't given the audience the satisfaction of seeing them be evicted yet. In saying that, for all we know Bree may very well have reached the Finale regardless - she was undoubtedly the "alpha female" of BB04 and was a popular HM all season, but it makes you wonder how the rest of the evictions (particularly those of Ryan and Paul, who were much larger characters overall) would have played out without Bree's incorrect eviction fiasco taking place. It definitely would have changed nominations and also affected storylines in those last few weeks.

Who do I think would have won the season instead? While it isn't ideal, Trevor probably would have still won by default, but the chances of Bree making it over Ryan in any normal circumstance isn't an infeasible theory.
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Bree was definitely carried to the finale by pity-vote, but it's not too difficult to predict how things would have played out.

Here's the two tally boards:
bbau_04_incorrectevictiontallies.png

In the re-count tally, you can easily work out which percentages weren't Bree, as they were adjusted down by less a single percentage point when the uncounted votes were added in. Therefore she was either the 17.4% or the 15.4% - either way, since they were all up (except Monica), this strongly suggests she would have at least survived the Double Eviction since Monica was then eligible that week for eviction.

Heading into the top 5 is when it really just becomes guess work with nothing to back it up. I could see her beating Catherine and maybe making it into the Top 4, but either way would have resulted in an all-male final week. I'd still imagine Trevor would coast to the win regardless of whether he was against Paul or Ryan.
 
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kbomb247 said:
Hahaha. I don't get the whole lights-off, body hiding thing at ALL. If I'm comfortable or drunk enough to let someone in my bed, I either a)don't care because I won't see them after the morning or b)am happy for him or her to take me as I am, warts & all.
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I will always prefer a low light/light off thing in the beginning for various reasons as I get older. It all depends at the time really.
 
asandow said:
No way, Lawson's hair (and the magic) was enough for me to want him gone before even Dion (not that I remember Dion much). Cat didnt bother me one way or the other until she started making out with that goose. And I reckon Dave should have been there at the end. Loved his honesty:):)
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I actually laughed out loud at your Lawson comment as I am in total agreement. I kept wanting him to tilt his head so his hair was at least not on an angle. I quite liked Cat until she got with bozo boy, sorry, Lawson. I really didn't like him on first sight and it followed through to his persona. I agree too with your other remarks.
 
I just want to say how annoyed I was when bloody bree came back and wesley was evicted instead of her.


1. In 2012, josh leaving was a big deal as I think he would have been in the final 3 but his over the top making out with Ava would have stopped him from winning.

2. In 2012 I say this with 100% certainty thats IF michael had not fell for estelle and made that very stupid move of hooking up with her he would have won without a doubt. I don't think zoe was his downfall but more the fact that majority of Michael supporters did not like estelle I think and it would be like if David was to hook up with Skye. I really still dont get what he was thinking and we watched him shoot himself in the foot so close to the end.

3. That year with camila and the harassment ... it got those two boys evicted and I think her way too ahead of when she'd be gone if that hadn't happened (sympathy votes??). I never liked her season contestants besides farmer dave and I still don't understand what got her to second... it was vote to evict and she seemed so unlikable so I have no idea how she got runner up and even worse...Jamie won?!

4. 2013 obviously Drew and Tully incident ruined drews chance of winning. I don't think he'd beat Tim or Tahan but maybe he would have made it further over jade since a lot of the girls who supported her would switch to him.

5. Lawson, lol what a dumb shit I seriously think he could have won if he hadn't cheated on his girlfriend but thank god he did because he'd probably end up cheating on her anyways when he was 200k richer, so I'm personally glad he didn't get the money at least. And cat can thank lawson for his massive fail because it got her further than she would have ever gotten without that showmance crap.

6. If Ryan had hooked up with Katie and had what travis and aisha had he would not have won.

7. If skye had packed her bags for that eviction 3 weeks ago and hadn't been all "I am the winner of Big Brother 2014...positive vibes" she would've won this year.
 
I'm afraid I can't add much to the OP's theories of the earlier seasons, as I lived in NZ during both this years (two of the 4 years I have not seen) for me to know what could have been. With Josh, I agree with everyone else, I think had things been different he would have altered the end outcome, and it would have been probably him or Michael that would have won instead.

One butterfly effect that I have wondered about in the last couple of BB's especially, is what difference would some of thie intruders had made if they all started off together in day 1. I think in particular Boog from 2013, and Penny from 2014 could have dramatically effected the outcome.

Boog - Boog did manage to get under Tim's skin more than any other HM, and that last week, Tim was struggling with Boog and Drew. If she had been in on day 1, how long would she have lasted, and would Tim have lost it with her?

Penny - I think Penny from day 1 would have effected a few people's time in the house - I think Sandra would have had a female she could connect with, and would have lasted longer, and I think she could have changed the dynamic with Dave and a few people. I think she could have gone as far as the finale as an original HM.
 
hafeau said:
I think in BB2012, it would've been a much different end to the series had Josh's brother not tragically passed away.

For example, Sam would've left that week - meaning Layla wouldn't have had her second showmance and I think she would've missed the finale. Josh complimented Michael and Stacey really well, the three of them together were all fun good people so when Josh left, it turned into a bitch fest with Ben in the mix and they had the fun times, which helped Ben win, but they seemed a little more negative.

I wonder what would have happened, had Ben gone in the "closest Big Brother eviction ever" when he beat out Ryan (W2) by 1%?
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I think Stacy, Michael & Josh would have been a LOT more fun to watch - I think Michael & Stacy would have been the final 2. Without the bitchy negativity they all had a lot to offer.
 
the Theorist said:
Sorry to interject, but can we please steer the conversation away from having sex with Drew and focus the discussion on the BB04, BB06 and BB09 seasons only please? :shy:
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Hahaha I would also enjoy some Drew.... But back on topic!

Thanks Theorist for your well thought out original post, it was an interesting read for me especially as I didn't watch some of those seasons as religiously as I do now I'm older so I enjoyed hearing your takes on them. In 2012 I think Josh would've won if he hadn't chosen to leave as he was such a crowd fave, I think him and Michael would've surely made it to the final.
 
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