THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT: Who would have won if...

[Afflllate]

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I had forgotten Belinda walked although it definitely seems historic now, and as though it never happened when I think back to Nathan last year. And I don't remember Belinda-gate either, or whatever the threats of harm were about (did Belinda threaten someone? Or threaten to harm herself?)

Basically it went down much like the turkey slap later would, in terms of the live feeds, but without as much furore IIRC I guess partly due to the two incidents being different in nature;

What happened was Belinda got really drunk one night then suddenly she's spilling to Carlo about how her younger sister was involved in a graphic homophobic murder, to the shock of the other square hms.

As her sister was a minor, apparently this Id of a minor involved in court proceedings created a legal issue in QLD. Live feeds were cut, message boards went into overdrive and were later shut down and did not return for 2004; and lastly they finally acknowledged the incident by playing an edited recap during uncut everywhere but QLD (for the legal reasons).

Starts partway through this clip:

 

[Mooseface]

Oh my God. I have watched two thirds of it. That is fairly heavy stuff. That surely influenced the butterflies. Im not quite sure what to think. I need a short break before I watch the rest and rewatch her decision to leave though. Wow.

 

[Kaz]

I honestly believe Camilla thought she was going to win after the turkey slap incident.

She knew what they were going to do, as she said something like you're not going to turkey slap me.

Re Bree being 'wrongly' evicted, I still can't understand how it happened. It's a bit hard to get Bree & Wesley mixed up.

Also Bree knew that Trevor was going to propose to Breea when he was evicted, as he practiced the proposal on her in the DR as few times.

 

[Mooseface]

Yes. Confusing. Well, not Josh's brother, but Camilla/John/Ashley fuelled by alcohol and Belinda-gate fuelled by alcohol. And I agree it seems very wierd to have got Bree and Wesley mixed up. Even though the computer had only just been invented at that time and that one may not have been fuelled by alcohol behind the scenes, we don't really know. I did think people had managed to work out how to use the computers by then.

 

[Mav]

What would the house have been like if Nobbi hadn't been banished to the Kombi? What would he do inside the house? What would have happened if Terri was actually Evicted on Day 2? Who would have won?

 

[Mooseface]

Watched the rest. It looks as though there was another incident filled night the night before she decided to leave as well... It can't have been the next day surely - there was some further rift that had developed... Plus Carlo had gone by then, hadn't he? He didn't seem to be in the diary room when BB announced it. And wouldn't she have been way more under the weather... And what did Leah come in to tell BB regarding Belinda that he already knew. This footage is actually way more intriguing that the recent seasons. I did spot Dan when I re watched. He is/was a quiet one though, hey? And how funny to see the books by the sides of their beds. They didn't seem to have prevented them from having interesting conversations and relationships at all. Why were they banned? I presume people started exploiting them and using them for contraband communication to form alliances or something?

 

[Brekkie]

Great thread - really interesting to think not just about how one incident can affect one season, but subsequent seasons too.

 

[the Theorist]

Re Bree being 'wrongly' evicted, I still can't understand how it happened. It's a bit hard to get Bree & Wesley mixed up.

It wasn't so much that they got the names wrong, it was an actual vote counting error by a computer. Not all of the votes were counted correctly, meaning that the amount of votes the computer read for Bree were higher than Wesley's tally at the time the show went to air. It wasn't until about 15 minutes later that they realized there were still unallocated votes remaining, which put Wesley above Bree.

Subsequently, they obviously had to rectify the mistake by law.

 

[smurfette]

Great opening post @the Theorist

I definitely agree about Bree's return to the house. I was thrilled when she was evicted, and unimpressed that she returned. The counting error was regrettable, but I think allowing her the option to choose to return to the house was an error which provided her with a pretty much guaranteed run to the finale. Paul's comments were spot on. While Trevor would probably still have won that season, if Bree had not returned I think Paul and Ryan would have made the final 3.

I also think the added attention that Bree received was a contributing factor in her being cast as co-host of Friday Night Games the following year. So, I think her return not only changed the natural course of the season but she also benefited career-wise post series too, and I think that fact may also had had a hand in the later series' contestants viewing BB as a springboard to media careers.

The turkey slap was the beginning of the end - and as pointed out had lasting ramifications not just for BB but for the wider broadcasting arena, both in regulations and alternate program development. I think it was this - more than any other event or incident in any Australian BB - that has redefined the BB concept to the almost unrecognisable format that we now have. The show may well still have been discontinued in due course, but I think it would have remained much closer to the original format - and quite possibly still on Channel 10 - once it was resurrected.

 

[Mooseface]

Ooooh great addition to the commentary smurfette re Friday Night Live and the media careers.

Although... I think there had already been several media careers by Bree's series. So I wonder if it had more to do with housemates 'playing up to the cameras' and deliberately seeking public sympathy strategically and possibly a bit 'manipulatively'/negatively rather that relying on their own positive contributions and personal growth and honesty.

I know computers hadn't really only just been invented by that series. I still find it wierd they got it wrong. It's not as though they hadn't done it before QUITE A FEW TIMES!

 

[Afflllate]

Watched the rest. It looks as though there was another incident filled night the night before she decided to leave as well... It can't have been the next day surely - there was some further rift that had developed... Plus Carlo had gone by then, hadn't he? He didn't seem to be in the diary room when BB announced it. And wouldn't she have been way more under the weather... And what did Leah come in to tell BB regarding Belinda that he already knew. This footage is actually way more intriguing that the recent seasons. I did spot Dan when I re watched. He is/was a quiet one though, hey? And how funny to see the books by the sides of their beds. They didn't seem to have prevented them from having interesting conversations and relationships at all. Why were they banned? I presume people started exploiting them and using them for contraband communication to form alliances or something?

I think the night before was the famous Chrissie Vs Ben stoush (see Day 31's show).

Books were an interesting omission from the later series. I dont know the exact reason they stopped being allowed to bring them in, but I would guess maybe it had to do with providing the HMs entertainment during downtime in the house and thus less interesting footage was getting generated by them quietly reading/not interacting etc rather than trying to find something to do, which often gave rise to some good material perhaps.

Much in the same way I remember sometime around the 2006 season they started implementing some kindof restriction on sleeping/lying down for too long during the day (and it wasnt part of some sleep depriv task). One of the memorable things about Claire (also from BB2003) was that she used to abuse this tactic to the hilt - going under the radar a lot due to sleeping through large periods of the day, I think someone even referred to her as a Koala at one point.

 

[Afflllate]

on @the Theorist's points, I think a few of those had a lot to do with the viewer's reactions towards the housemates as well and the differing situations and that could've gone a number of ways in regards to their support.

firstly, theres the sympathy vote angle, which Bree may have been helped by, she was wrongfully evicted through no fault on her behalf.
Camilla already was a bit of an underdog being nominated nearly every other week, and some may have saw the Turkey slap as a legitimate thing to add to this. However it could have also gone the other way, some viewers blaming her for getting John and Ashley booted, or thinking that she saw it as an opportunity to play up the victim a bit to win the show. Its interesting that year also had both Save and Evict votes.

Josh's case was similar to Bree's in that the incident didn't have an element of his doing to it. The difference was he didn't stay/return to the house and its easy to speculate that if he had stayed/ returned the circumstances as public knowledge and knowledge to Josh and the other housemates would have possibly provided a much stronger sympathy reaction than just being wrongfully evicted.

However thinking it through a little more that maybe couldve gone in different ways/opposite directions as well.

What if the news of his brothers death went like Emma's dad in 07? Ok, the two were different in that Josh's brother was a sudden thing, but also if the news managed to stay out of the media (it was all over radio I recall) at the family's request, on the understanding that Josh's brother wouldn't have wanted to cut his Josh's BB experience short?

If the public knew but Josh didn't = similar to Emma 07, although Josh was arguably a more popular housemate?

Public knows, Josh Knows and stays = may have sympathy due to his brothers wishes, but maybe if that isnt clear he mightve been seen as selfish or uncaring perhaps.

Another thing that I was thinking was what if Gretel had hosted 2008? I was reading the wiki page and apparently she didnt pay much attention to the show after she quit but I reckon maybe she would've had a lot to say about Nobbi etc and the bit of boys club, and would've been interesting to see her take on some of the stunts pulled that year.

 

[Rison]

It wasn't so much that they got the names wrong, it was an actual vote counting error by a computer. Not all of the votes were counted correctly, meaning that the amount of votes the computer read for Bree were higher than Wesley's tally at the time the show went to air. It wasn't until about 15 minutes later that they realized there were still unallocated votes remaining, which put Wesley above Bree.

Subsequently, they obviously had to rectify the mistake by law.

Not quite. It's was a human error, as mentioned during this chat Gretel had with the head-honcho at Legion Interactive.

Jump to 4m10s, or auto-magical link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBkQEo_t3u8&feature=player_detailpage#t=250

 

[Kaz]

I also think the added attention that Bree received was a contributing factor in her being cast as co-host of Friday Night Games the following year.

Wesley did well out of it.

He got a job on Totally Wild the same year the wrong eviction happened.

 

[smurfette]

Wesley did well out of it.

He got a job on Totally Wild the same year the wrong eviction happened.

He did - but despite that he didn't really get much of a profile here. He has ultimately done well in the US, though.

While Blair did get the Neighbours role, and people like Chrissie and Ryan moved into radio (and Chrissie then into TV), I think Bree was the first to get a high-profile TV presenting role from BB that kept her in the public eye for a while. By high-profile I mean that the Friday Night show rode the BB wave at the height of its popularity, so came with built-in large audience and exposure. Ryan was on it as well, but moved into radio rather than maintaining the screen visibility that Bree did for a length of time. In a way, it seemed to promote the idea, to me at least, that the network would look out for HMs and assist them in the media.

 

[Zcsund1234]

I personally loved Bree. However I do think she only got runner up due to sympathy. If the eviction had been normal and Wesley was evicted properly then I think Monica and Bree would have deffintly been evicted in the double, I can't think of an order but deffintly Catherine and Ashalea the next two. Then possibly Ryan or Paul leaving in third but I still think Trevor would have won be default regardless.

As for the turkey slap I do think it really did stuff up the entire second half of the show and of course it caused the doom of BBAU. Gaelan of course would have been evicted per normal if the turkey slap had not happened. I think Perry and Darren would have deffintly gone next. Followed by JamIe and Ashly and Camilla. Claire and John probably would have gone in a double eviction leaving David and Krystal is the final with David winning. Without the turkey slap I think BB07 would have been less bland and would have rated probably around 1.2-1.4 million viewers on average. I also think Gretel would have remained as host until the shows very end. BB08 would deffintly not be like it was. The format would not have changed and the show would rate consistently until maybe 2011. I do think the show would either still be on air but rating very low (750K-800K) or been axed recently (2013 or 2014). So overall the turkey slap deffintly killed Big Brother Australia in my opinion. It made people look at the show in a horrible way. Without it then then audiences would have just gotten older and the show would have just become stale.

With Josh leaving the only major impact it had was the rankings of housemates. Oh and of course the Michael estelle incident. Obviously Angie would have gone if this had not happened. Layla would have gotten the super power and would prevented Sam from being nominated meaning Zoe would have been evicted. She would have given the power to Ben or Michael with Sam being evicted next. Then followed by Stacey being evicted and I truely believe that Michael would not have gotten together with estelle making him still very popular with the audience and Layla and Ben would have left in the double. Estelle would have easily come third still with Michael and Josh being the final two and of course Michael would have won Big Brother 2012

 

[the Theorist]

** AMENDMENT TO MY BB06 THEORY **

I'm back to add to part of my theory surrounding BB06 and the effects of the "turkey slap".

I recently just finished re-watching BB06 in full and wow my thoughts have slightly changed. While I still believe Krystal definitely would have lasted another week in the house (as an indirect result of my "HM's involved in the series twist" theory), I must retract my earlier statement that I don't believe Camilla would have been runner-up. After re-watching the progression of this season, Camilla was truly a brilliant HM - she was honest, genuine, upfront and wasn't afraid to say what she thought. In contrast to Bree's situation in BB04 whereby she definitely only placed second due to "sympathy votes" for being wrongly evicted, I no longer believe that Camilla's involvement in the "turkey slap" also caused a similar event. I also don't believe David had a chance of winning either as I previously stated. Jamie's stance within the house from Day 1 remained consistent all along. He portrayed all the right characteristics of a "typical BBAU winner" during that period of the show, therefore it's not such a far-fetched idea that he would still likely have won BB06, even if John and Ashley hadn't been ejected.

In saying that, it's occurrences such as this that hurt my brain when attempting to think about just how differently the show could have gone if the "turkey slap" hadn't happened. The order of evictions is one thing, but it's also such an interesting prospect that we almost never had Max or Chris as HM's! Both of these guys were extremely pivotal HM's in this particular season due to the repercussions their entry had on the rest of the HM's and their times in the house. Both guys were there for literally less than 3 weeks, however in that time Max became undoubtedly one of the most loved HM's of the year (and one of my favourites of all-time) and Chris' involvement with Camilla added an entirely new depth to her personality. Their entrance into the house also threw Darren off the deep end, he loathed the fact that he was no longer the "last" Intruder of the season and he became extremely territorial and stubborn about it, which resulted in his eviction that same week. The fact that both Claire and Krystal were also evicted before Max and Chris in a shock turn of events also made for riveting TV, especially when David, Camilla and Jamie realised what had happened live.

Speaking of Max, I find it amazing that even though he was there for such a short time he had such a HUGE impact on not only the HM's but also on the Australian public. He ended up placing fourth and his eviction show alone proves just how popular he became within that space of time. This guy is totally up there with some of my favourite BB HM's ever - it's just a shame he wasn't given the chance to be a full HM from the beginning.

This leads me to my other point that Vesna, another HUGELY popular HM, also would have never appeared on our screens had Constance and Nelson not been ejected for breaking the rules at the beginning of BB05. It's so interesting that unexpected and successful characters such as Max and Vesna only ever became HM's in the first place due to another HM's misfortune.

 

[beardymac]

I adamantly believe that had Max entered a week earlier (or in Darren's spot); he would've been a very strong contender to take it out.

My 2c on the eviction order for 06, had T/S not happened - Ash would go in the double, John probably in 4th (leaving Krystal 5th and Claire 6th).

ETA: Camilla would possibly go third, but Jamie would still win over David.