I guess we may as well use this thread for general discussion of the series so far?
Just finished rewatching this week's episode and have updated my charts.
I think I can safely say George is not winning. I have ruled him out of contention completely after the previous episode. He tried to play off Nina against Matt and Gerry. Telling Nina to vote for Gerry and telling the boys to vote for Nina, lying to Nina and telling her that the boys are voting for Simon. All in the mix neglecting to tell either Nina or Gerry that they are going to be collateral damage incase Simon has an idol.
IMO telling Nina to vote for Gerry was a sub-optimal move as he had two votes on Nina and three votes on Simon regardless. It didn't matter if Nina still voted for Simon as he held majority with risk of an idol regardless. As we can see in the promo for the next episode Nina and Gerry are going to compare notes and realise that George was pitting them against each other. It was bound to happen eventually. Again highlighting poor jury management as he views players as nothing more than pawns. Any relationship he seems to build with them is disingenuous. I for one, who is very high on the social game of survivor, believe that in order to play the bets social game possible your bonds need to be genuine first before they can be used strategically.
Nina is not winning also, nor is Simon. Matt's spike in visibility from the previous ep seems to be setting him up for a final tribal council. He isn't going home I don't think, no one is targeting him. I think we're getting set up a narrative where he makes it to the end but will not win due the jury feeling like he has made minimal game moves. I still think all signs point to a Liz win. George is way too negatively edited and he keeps saying he is in control which I predict is setting him up for a very sharp fall.
I think Simon's time is running out if he can't win immunity. If Liz remains reluctant to flip on George then it will be hard for the others to orechtrate a move against him. I will say George managed his relationship with Liz well by informing her of his true intentions of telling Nina and Gerry to vote for each other. By also keeping her in mind when he changed the vote to Nina it will continue to keep her feeing secure with him. Which will ultimately lead to him being cut by her I have no doubt about it all.
I would rather idols not be allowed to be played this late in the game as they are just making the votes more convoluted than they need to be. The main reason George was setting up this 2-2-1-1 vote was because he feared Simon may have had an idol. Of course on the other hand, the vote splitting made it very possible that Nina, Matt and Simon could have voted for George in a 3-2-1 vote. But as it suggests Matt did not feel confident in Nina voting with them (correct read as she voted for Gerry like George told her too) and it seems he told Simon to vote for Nina instead to have Nina voted out in a 3-2-1 vote. Everyone (except for Nina) just got lucky that George decided to stack all the votes onto Nina anyway.
As for the episode where Hayley goes, it was frustrating. One simple slip up of Hayley informing the other players that George had won $60,000 seemed to have ruined her game. If she did not tell them, then Nina had no way of proving that she did not switch her vote to Shaun and Hayley could have handily made sure Nina goes home, retaining her position with George. Although, I don't see why Hayley didn't try to rally Nina, Shaun and Simon together to vote out George at the Shaun boot. Hayley could have played a much more flip floppy game and diminished George's alliance earlier on to be able to do so. But she didn't. But I still think she gave it a good go, her one mistake just fucked it.
Losing Shonee, Shaun and Hayley in succession has left us with a very weak final 6 IMO, where the two biggest characters of the season eat up all of the airtime. A strong pre-merge and an average post-merge. It is very much a George pagonging everyone else, the split votes are just blown up by the editors to look like more than they are, to make the show appear more fun. When in reality, George is just splitting votes incase of idols.
