Survivor: Heroes v Villains - Opinion on pre and post-merge

How was the pre merge of this season in your opinion?

  • Amazing

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Great

    Votes: 6 60.0%
  • Good

    Votes: 1 10.0%
  • Okay

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bad

    Votes: 2 20.0%
  • Horrible

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • Total voters
    10

Brekkie

Moderator
Staff member
Just changed the title rather than deleted the thread as a duplicate.

Good, but not great. The best move was nullified by producers and far too much of one person at the expense of a better show. I do like they let the villains tribe dwindle quite a bit before tribe swap, but also think there was an opportunity not to do tribe swap and just merge a little bit earlier instead just to make things less predictable. Whether tribe swap has set things up better for the votes ahead remains to be seen.
 

Meglos

HAVE A NECTARINE, GONK
I've enjoyed the whole season.
There are some great characters, and the few I actually disliked are long gone.
There's room for improvement - too much external interference in placing idols or setting up non-eliminations.
Too much focus on a handful of people, giving others no screentime.
But overall it's great fun.
 

Brekkie

Moderator
Staff member
Feels like that is written in the context of the US series rather than the Aussie series. It's a good season no doubt, but I think I was more invested in last years TBH and one of the Champions v Contenders seasons (I think S3, but might have been S4 - or even both) betters it too.

Really when all is said and done if the star of the season is the lid off a cookie jar then it's probably not the best season they've ever had.
 

D Space

Well-Known Member
Feels like that is written in the context of the US series rather than the Aussie series. It's a good season no doubt, but I think I was more invested in last years TBH and one of the Champions v Contenders seasons (I think S3, but might have been S4 - or even both) betters it too.

Really when all is said and done if the star of the season is the lid off a cookie jar then it's probably not the best season they've ever had.
I really enjoyed the first champions vs contenders, the one in which Shane Gould won. The cast was great and it was very entertaining all the way for me. The one in which Pia won was also really good, I thought Pia was a good deserving winner and I had such a soft spot for her.

Agree this one has been really good so far. Around 4 episodes back, I was pinning it as the best one yet, but I'm feeling there are others now that stand out from it, and the end game to this one already seems so preordained for some reason. And a lot of it is because of the editing overdoing George, Shonee & Hayley angles that it makes the idea of anyone else winning seem like a joke??. Reserving judgement though until I've seen Zcsund's analysis.

My feeling is that the pre-merge will be the best part of this season, and yes, the cookie jar lid. haha
 

Zcsund1234

Well-Known Member
Here I have provided my confessional count for the season. It may be a bit off and slightly different to many others that keep track, but here's what I have counted while watching. When counting confessionals I use the 10 second rule in between confessionals to differentiate. Or, sometimes I consider a scene of players talking or doing something relevant enough to break a confessional into two.

1677737333432.png

For the returnees who made it to episode 15 last time their initial confessional counts were:
Sam: 30 (an increase of 1)
Shonee 1.0: 30 (an increase of 16)
Shaun: 56 (a decrease of 14)
Shonee 2.0: 53 (a decrease of 7)
George: 98 (a decrease of 8)
Hayley: 92 (a decrease of 58)
Flick: 19 (an increase of 9)

Simon was voted out in episode 12 of his last season with a total of 56 confessionals, by episode 12 this season he had a total of 54. So only a decrease of 2.

For the returnees who did not make merge, I'll compare their confessional counts for the episode they were eliminated this season along with the same episode as their initial season.
Jackie: 0 for episode 1 in both seasons (no change).
Jordie: 28 for HvV and 16 for BvV (an increase of 12)

Stevie only lasted 4 episodes in 2018 and had 12 confessionals, he had a total of 11 confessionals by episode 4 of HvV, only a decrease of one.

Everyone has a pretty stable count that isn't too far off their initial, except for Hayley being the obvious one to have a drastic difference. I think if she was to be a two time winner the show would be prepping her up a lot more. But the lopsided edited just further shows how George is being given way more airtime than necessary. People like David, Nina, Fraser, Flick and even Sarah who were seemingly playing decently well were deprived of confessionals.

I understand some players are more entertaining than others and for the sake of ratings people like George need to be shown, but everyone at least deserves a storyline! Everyone deserves to have their thoughts and gameplay shared. I really hope that the next few seasons are newbies only. I don't want to see returnees take away from the experience of some players who could show some really strong capabilities and entertainment.
 
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Zcsund1234

Well-Known Member
And here we have my current edgic chart as it stands. I'll again briefly explain what all of this means to those who do not know.

CP = complex personality, a player who explains their thoughts and strategy in a complex manner and drives the narrative.
MOR = middle of the road, a player who is somewhat secondary in the narrative and whilst may get airtime, they lack development.
UTR = under the radar, a player who is deliberately hidden in the edit and is given very low or minimal content.
OTT = over the top, a player who is one dimensional and almost cartoon like with focus on one aspect of them being the highlight of their narrative.

P = positive tone
N = negative tone
M = mix of both

1-5: a simple scale of how visible they were with 5 being very visible and 1 being not at all visible.

1677738907104.png
 
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Zcsund1234

Well-Known Member
I'll go through my power rankings which are based on who I think is most likely to win. I also provide some predictions as to where I think the player's storylines are headed. I will probably be embarrassingly wrong, but it's fun to sit down and try to map out what I think will happen.

10th: Nina. I do not think Nina is winning at all. She at least is given the whole story arc of her being Sandra's daughter and her mum is the two-time winner who won as a villain in Samoa, and now she's going to win as a Hero in Samoa. But that is all. She is only ever shown when necessary and her lack of content in the pre-merge just makes me think she is not the winner. She if anything will be an endgame boot, but she is in a very poor position and we have no idea what her relationships are like outside of her alliance. I have no reason to think she is a person to keep an eye on for the rest of the end game.

9th: Simon. I see many others online rank him very last, I don't think that's the case IMO. I don't see a Simon win being very likely at all, but he has some level of a winning arc. He begins the series discussing how he has returned for redemption and wants to prove he is more than the big mistake he made in BvB. But, the entire time the edit has been undermining him with no real strategic credit being given to him at all. Recently his positing has been fixed and the negativity has toned down a bit, but his initial few weeks have ruled him out of contention for me. I can see him making a very deep run though, I think he will either be a person who takes out George or will be George's final victim. The edit very clearly focuses on something happening between the two of them down the line.

8th: Sam. He is another one who I do not think has much chance of winning at all. He is only ever shown when necessary like Nina, but he does not have the negativity that Simon has. He doesn't have much of a narrative at all and is probably the only person in the cast who does not have any narrative whatsoever. I thought we'd see more of him comparing how the game has changed from season 1, but we haven't. I actually think he is going to be one of the next few boots, I don't see how his edit is leading him to anything further than what we are seeing right now.

7th: Gerry. I actually am surprised by Gerry. I initially thought he was going to be a bit of a nothing player this season, but IMO he has made the right move pretty much every single time he's had to make a choice. At the time I thought going back to the heroes was stupid, but in retrospect, it seems he was well aware the heroes were not going to lose many more challenges and it may have just been a way to stay alive and not to burn them all so quickly in case the villains were all picked off. He had a decent storyline going in the middle of the season where he was being praised by several cast members as likeable and he was constantly being referred to as a hero and we even got positive personal content from him. His lack of visibility lately has me doubt he is the winner, but I think his conversation with Matt and George has foreshadowed a very deep run for him. I don't see him winning, I actually think he could be a losing finalist, I just can't see the jury respecting him as a winner over the people he is working with.

6th: Hayley. She started off as my initial winner pick. I thought in the beginning the show was hyping her up to be the two-time winner of Australian Survivor, following the trend of two-time winners after Reggie in BB and Billie from MA. Whilst she has been shown, it is in no way the same as last time. She has not had this amazing run as she did in BvB, although I would argue that is because her insane threat level and being in the heroes' tribe denied her any wiggle room to do anything due to all the blokey males on her tribe. I like to see that she can play for the bottom and doesn't need to be in complete control to do decently well. She is a prominent figure but I don't see how she logically makes it to the end and wins. Not in this season anyway. I think the moment she decides to blindside George, he will get her first. Her lack of airtime in some important episodes has me thinking she is no more than a mid-merge boot. I don't think this was a season for her to do well in.
 

Zcsund1234

Well-Known Member
5th: Matt. I have actually had him super low on my rankings for the majority of the time. Up until the last few episodes. I think he is going down the same route as Sharn did in all stars. Where he has been very silent in the beginning and will make a very deep run into the game but will not win. His conversation with Gerry speaking about the final 2, makes me think he is here for the endgame with George and Gerry. Will he win? No. It's likely, he is very well-liked by the jury, I just feel like his story would be more propped up if he was winning.

4th: George. If he wasn't so overexposed in the edit, I would have him ranked higher. I am of firm belief one of the spice girls is winning. I don't think it's him, however. He gets massive amounts of strategic credit in every episode, but he is also shown to be the target of many others. Whether that be right now, or later on. People are going to come for him eventually. And that's the kind of game he plays, he plays hard and well enough to make it far, but his game will always reach a brick wall with no way around, through or over it. I don't see him winning the FIC and being able to make it to FTC again. I think he will fall victim to his allies rallying together to take him out at the end. The way I see it, I think he is going to turn on one major ally, possibly Shonee, and another ally (i.e Liz) is going to seek revenge. He is going to work his way to take Gerry as far as he can to beat him, but I don't think that's the case. The story is very much again why George loses rather than why he wins. He's played a much better social game than his last appearance, I just do not see a way for him to reach the end and win against someone he wants to take to the end.

3rd: Shaun. He is only higher than George due to his more balanced edit. He isn't over-shown, he gets complex content and he has a narrative that I could see leading to a win. He speaks about how he needs to play a villainous game rather than a heroic one like last time in order to win. Much like Matt, he is employing the theme of the season in his winning strategy as well as the narrative. He is constantly being propped up by other players like Simon especially, and I can see him being very respected by the jury should he make it to the end. He has shown to be in control of his alliance and is overall getting content when he needs it and even gets shown in episodes he's quieter in. The fact he also has an idol that he is willing to play gives me the feeling he is going to make a somewhat decent lengthened run. But, he could just as easily not play it and get voted out with it in his pocket. He keeps talking about how he wants to hold onto it and play it at the right time. A blindside could be foreshadowed. I would rank him higher but, he is a hero, not a villain. And I think the winner of this season is going to be a villain, so Shaun is not my number-one pick despite having a very decent edit.

2nd: Shonee. Realistically she could be number one. She got an incredibly strong premie week as well as the swap week and even got decent content in the merge week that just passed. She got strategic credit for almost every vote up until the Stevie boot. She named Anjali, Michael and Mimi. She has gotten major positive content from Liz and George and is shown to be a threatening player. She has her own theme music which tells me one of two things; she is either the winner or is going to be a big obstacle for the eventual winner to overcome. She isn't overexposed, but what makes me doubt her winning chances is that recently she has not been as present as someone like her should be if she was to win. In All Stars, she was the biggest character who wasn't David. This time, she is shown but not in the incredibly complex way that she was last time. If her edit starts to spike a bit over this week I will consider placing her first. I however can see a path for her that leads to George taking her out once the vigilantes make it to their desired final 7, and it will be Liz IMO who will take out George to avenge her. I would love to see her win though, as I have stated many times she is my favourite Survivor AU player ever, but I don't know how confident I am in her winning.

1st: Liz. A hot take maybe, but I think she is the winner. I have some doubts as she was invisible in the premiere episode which is normally synonymous with presenting the winner to the audience. But, her content in the second episode was a big stick out for me, so I consider any content in the first week to be just as important as any content in the first episode. In episode 2 she gets a confessional of her saying how she is a villain as well as an olympian and how she will use these traits to be the winner. She also says she and Shonee as the "shiz" alliance are ready to dominate the game. For me, that was an extreme example of foreshadowing of the shiz alliance and how they will make a very deep run into the game. I have already mentioned that I think the winner is going to be a villain, and more specifically a spice girl. It is this confessional that makes me think she is the one to win rather than Shonee. Her lack of content early on does make me worry for her chances, I even was tricked into thinking Jordie was going to be the winner during Liz's lack of content for a bit. But now that Jordie is going I am of the opinion that she is going to win the show. I think she is going to be the one that gets in George's way this time. There is constant content alluding us to think that Liz and George are going to disagree and wrestle for control and will at one point turn on each other. I think George will be the one to take out Shonee and Liz will be the one to slay the king. She is George's new Hayley, the one physical threat that will come between him and his much-desired crown. Of all the newbies she is also the only one being shown as her own unique character. Gerry and Matt also do not get a lot of airtime, but Liz is shown to be this stone-cold ice queen with daggers for eyes with an unfazed demeanour. I think this is to elucidate her villainous character and why she will be the one to hold the crown for her fellow villains. But, if she is to lack content for the next week or two, I may place her down again and it might just lead to Shonee emerging as the winning spice girl. Either way, it is between the two of them and I am so excited to see where this leads. However I also admittedly was high when I watched episode 2 and had my epiphany on why I think Liz. So we'll see how credible edibles are when analysing Survivor LMAO.
 
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Brekkie

Moderator
Staff member
And here we have my current edgic chart as it stands. I'll again briefly explain what all of this means to those who do not know.

CP = complex personality, a player who explains their thoughts and strategy in a complex manner and drives the narrative.
MOR = middle of the road, a player who is somewhat secondary in the narrative and whilst may get airtime, they lack development.
UTR = under the radar, a player who is deliberately hidden in the edit and is given very low or minimal content.
OTT = over the top, a player who is one dimensional and almost cartoon like with focus on one aspect of them being the highlight of their narrative.

P = positive tone
N = negative tone
M = mix of both

1-5: a simple scale of how visible they were with 5 being very visible and 1 being not at all visible.

View attachment 59562
You've made a mistake there - George should be "OTT" and one dimensional for every single episode.
 

Zcsund1234

Well-Known Member
You've made a mistake there - George should be "OTT" and one dimensional for every single episode.
Funnily enough many online arugue whether or not George should be CP or OTT. For me, whilst he does constantly have to call himself the king and talk about slaying a crusade, he does actually explain his thought process and why he is doing the things he's doing.
 

D Space

Well-Known Member
That seems very well thought out… I pretty much agree with it. They are not even for a moment throwing any more suggestions that Nina has any strategy to navigate for a win. Although I’m sure she has a story to share…
 

JimJam

Well-Known Member
I can see a jury picking Shonee over George for sure, but Liz? I don’t think she’s demonstrated enough strategic thinking and has just been fortunate in bonding with Shonee at the beginning. I wouldn’t go so far as to say she’s totally been carried through by Shonee and George, but she hasn’t personally instigated any big moves, apart from the terrible decision to keep Flick. Let’s hope if Liz makes it to top two, that it’s with someone like Matt, then she has a chance. As for George, I’ve said it before…I don’t think he’ll win, and I don’t think George thinks he’ll win either.
 

Zcsund1234

Well-Known Member
Let’s hope if Liz makes it to top two, that it’s with someone like Matt,
Logically this would have to be the outcome for my prediction to be correct. I can see George taking Gerry and Matt along to the end game stretch. Liz more than likely could go on an immunity run and take out George and then Gerry as obvious jury threats and I can see her having a very strong FTC performance over Matt. Who will probably just scrape the surface when delivering his speech to the jury.
 

Behemoth

Well-Known Member
It was good just the two tribes were unbalanced so one of them one all the immunities but looks like there going to shit the bed and the Villains still will be the winners LoL
 
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