The producers always arrange the last two for suspense for the crowd, not for mindfucking the HMs (in fact, in general, I don't think they fuck with the HMs enough, but that's a different thread).
So, yes, if they were messing with the HMs, you might see Tim on the bench at the end, but they won't. They know the public voting, they know there's no suspense (for the public) in Tim on the bench, so it will be two people calculated for drama.
Likely pairings based on who's going (first name is going, second name is the "suspenseful" pairing):
Tully & Jade
Jade & Ed
Ed & Jade
Caleb & Ed
Tahan & Jade
Tim & Tully
So, to my thinking, once we see the final pair, if you see Tim, Tahan or Caleb, they are going.