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Eviction #9 Betting Odds

If I was going to have a punt ...my money would be placed on the Sisters...

over the last 3 evictions Tahan's save % has increased...her personal support base must be huge

No.4 eviction 12.4% (coming in 3rd with the lowest save %)
No.5 eviction 17% (coming in 4th )
No.6 eviction 20.8% (coming in 5th)
 
yer the betting market for big brother is entirely publicity related in order to enable them to get free publicity on the main news sites.
 
"People tend to cover their bets with votes"

surely no one serious would do this. they would need to have significant money on it well in excess of the allowed amount.
 
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At 1.14 this means you dont even need to weigh up if Tully will go or not, it means that she is definately out. I've never seen odds that low and the person survives eviction.

Ed last week fluctuated between 1.50 and then drifted out to 1.90 when it started to emerge that he had more support than expected. At 1.14 you are (badly burnt) toast!
 
jb4493 said:
At 1.14 this means you dont even need to weigh up if Tully will go or not, it means that she is definately out. I've never seen odds that low and the person survives eviction.

Ed last week fluctuated between 1.50 and then drifted out to 1.90 when it started to emerge that he had more support than expected. At 1.14 you are (badly burnt) toast!
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im not so sure i cant see why the sisters will definately be safe
 
Ed's low odds last week were the only week the agencies have been wrong all show, or am I dreaming?

And don't the odds normally disappear on Mondays usually? For them to still be seen must mean that there are no surprises. Or am I wrong about that too?
 
jb4493 said:
At 1.14 this means you dont even need to weigh up if Tully will go or not, it means that she is definately out. I've never seen odds that low and the person survives eviction.

Ed last week fluctuated between 1.50 and then drifted out to 1.90 when it started to emerge that he had more support than expected. At 1.14 you are (badly burnt) toast!
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not really
it just means the bookmakers have taken the most money on Tully.

the odds are a reflection of where the money is going not necessarily who is most likely to be evicted. the bookies are in this to make money remember.
 
talene said:
not really
it just means the bookmakers have taken the most money on Tully.

the odds are a reflection of where the money is going not necessarily who is most likely to be evicted. the bookies are in this to make money remember.
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The books use whatever information they can get their hands on to set the odds. If they were merely a reflection of where the money was going they'd be setting themselves up to be f'd over. I'd be able to put a chunk of money on Tully to drive her odds down, simultaneously driving the odds up of the person I was really wanting to bet on. It would then take me a lot less money to not only cover that Tully bet but score a big profit when my real target was evicted. Books aren't stupid.
 
if i placed a $1000 bet on Tahan right now the odds for Tully and the Sisters would lengthen dramatically.
does this make them any less likely to be evicted?

of course the books arent stupid. theres always a cut in the middle for them. thats why both sides pay $1.90 in an even 2 horse race.
 
Mrs Butterface said:
The books use whatever information they can get their hands on to set the odds. If they were merely a reflection of where the money was going they'd be setting themselves up to be f'd over. I'd be able to put a chunk of money on Tully to drive her odds down, simultaneously driving the odds up of the person I was really wanting to bet on. It would then take me a lot less money to not only cover that Tully bet but score a big profit when my real target was evicted. Books aren't stupid.
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what your missing is the fact that you can only bet small amounts at a time. the bookies aim to make money regardless of the outcome
 
buck1106 said:
what your missing is the fact that you can only bet small amounts at a time. the bookies aim to make money regardless of the outcome
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Of course they do. I used to work for the largest offshore gambling site and to think books only rely on where the money goes to dictate the odds even on small exotics is naive at best. If that were the case there'd be thousands of people out of work as algorithms could merely automate the odds from open to close.
 
Mrs Butterface said:
Of course they do. I used to work for the largest offshore gambling site and to think books only rely on where the money goes to dictate the odds even on small exotics is naive at best. If that were the case there'd be thousands of people out of work as algorithms could merely automate the odds from open to close.
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Already done in the 1930s. It called TAB.
 
Mrs Butterface said:
Of course they do. I used to work for the largest offshore gambling site and to think books only rely on where the money goes to dictate the odds even on small exotics is naive at best. If that were the case there'd be thousands of people out of work as algorithms could merely automate the odds from open to close.
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o right i was under the impression algorithms dominate the industry
 
buck1106 said:
yer the betting market for big brother is entirely publicity related in order to enable them to get free publicity on the main news sites.
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Used to be Buck, before they were allowed to advertise. Now it's more for content than anything else.
 
can someone send me a screen shot of the eviction odds. Thnxs
 
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