Eviction #6 Betting Odds + Fake Eviction Odds

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jb4493 said:
I really hope Matt can scrape by, hes a way more interesting personality then Ed! Would be such a shame to see him go before him.
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Agree. I hope enough people are voting for Matt. If Matt goes and Ed stays it will be like 'what? Why? What's ed bring over matt?'
 
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mikidiki said:
Seeing as though no1 has answered your question I will do the honours - I believe that the fake evictee will be immune from nominations for one week. This has been mentioned somewhere before and other people commented that it's only fair they are immune. Cheers, Miki xx
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Thanks! Will be curious if the secret power is that they get to nominate secretly anyway. That would make sense. Immune from nomination but get to nominate after viewing the other HMs talk about them.
 
sunshinelou said:
I'm not so sure that Tim still wants this. The diary room from last night was cut off. I almost got the impression that Tim was about to say that Ed and Matt were his targets at nominations but now he is changing his mind. All he said was that the people he has nominated each week were the ones to go home and he had a nice smirk about what that meant. But there seemed to be something unsaid, and it would tie in to other conversations he had during the day about how he needs to reevaluate his strategy. I also saw the video where Tully said that Tim was going to target the Sisters, which I found bizarre. If anything, I wouldnt be surprised if Matt and Ed are right and Tim is definitely after Ben but he is just trying to throw up smoke to cover his efforts by claiming to go after the Sisters.
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Tim is going to switch from taking out the weaker players week after week, to now keeping the weaker players with him to the end. I believe this is what he means by changing his strategy. He now is playing with the endgame in sight. Like a chess master making his play many moves in advance, this is what he is doing.

He is choosing which of the housemates he wants to be with to the end for strategic reasons, preferably the ones he can pick out and take down easily, e.g. like Mikkayla, Tahan, and Drew. All these characters have serious 'flaws' about them one way or another which Tim can manipulate for his advantage. However for people like the sugar sisters and Ben, Tim has almost nothing on them. And with regards to Tim's strategy and his style of playing the game, he would probably regard them as stronger/harder players.

Tim's strategy is to plant seeds and cut people down by their 'flaws' one by one, under the guise of just a silly 'prankster' and an 'honest' person. Or alternatively just leave them to be because they are so boring. This is why Ben is Tim's biggest threat. He's so low on the social totem pole, he's such a harmless nice guy, Tim has no weapons to take him out with. In contrast to say alpha male Matt, or someone like Tahan, or anyone else, Ben is effectively immune to Tim's style of play. That's why Tim's strategy is to rile up Ben, make him lose his cool one way or another whether through 'harmless pranks' or something else. And bring something bad out of him so he can take him down with. However Tim has noticed, the more overt he is with his measures, the more he is met with disapproval by the group in general and the more he is made out to be an arse 'bad guy' rather than just a 'silly prankster'. He is acutely aware of what is going on within the house and possible perceptions outside of the house at all times.

So it'll be interesting to see how Tim takes it from here, especially considering it's already half-way into the game and he already has the endgame in sight.
 
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Centrebet Real Eviction:

Ed 1.80
Matt 2.80
Katie/Lucy 4.50
Tahan 11.00
Mikkayla 13.00
Ben 17.00

Fake:

Ben 2.10
Mikkayla 2.20
Tahan 4.00
Katie/Lucy 13.00
Ed 15.00
Matt 17.00
 
Looks like Sportsbet is ignoring noise generating from Nick, Ed's twin. I think their odds are closer to the mark than Centrebet.

On that note, why so many identical twins? K&L, Nick and Ed, Matt and his twin.

Real eviction:

Ed 1.65
Tahan 4.50
Matt 5.00
K&L 6.00
Mikk 11.00
Ben 21.00


Fake:

Ben: 2.00
Mikk: 2.75
Tahan: 3.00
K&L: 14.00
Matt: 14.00
Ed: 21.00
 
oddjob said:
Sportsbet odds are a bit different this time, Tahan second fave for real eviction, 3rd fave for fake eviction?

Real:

Ed 1.65
Tahan 4.50
Matt 5.50
Katie & Lucy 6.00
Mikkayla 11.00
Ben 21.00

Fake:

Ben 2.00
Mikkayla 2.75
Tahan 3.00
Katie & Lucy 14.00
Matt 14.00
Ed 21.00
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Wouldn't even bother mentioning Sportsbet - they are letting people have $5 bets on the evictions - call themselves big bookies
 
:pp said:
Looks like Sportsbet is ignoring noise generating from Nick, Ed's twin. I think their odds are closer to the mark than Centrebet.

Their odds are ridiculous - Tahan shorter to get most votes than she is to be evicted (where she's second favourite)
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These Sportsbet odds are strange. Especially for Tahan.
I'm curious as to how many people here are actually voting and how few votes the true evictee will get.
I am voting for Tahan this week but I wont say exactly how many times I have voted.
If these REAL eviction odds by Centrebet are accurate, I have an idea how many may be needed to put her above Mikkayla.
Not sure if she can beat Ben though.

Ed 1.80
Matt 2.80
Katie/Lucy 4.50
Tahan 11.00
Mikkayla 13.00
Ben 17.00
 
I'm still hoping Ed will go. Did anyone notice what Matt said during Friday's show - that he and Ed had been the most active in the house all week so they were likely safe. I'm so hoping Mikkayla will get the fake eviction but it could be hard to beat Ben's votes. Actually considering voting for her - I don't usually vote at all.
 
Howzat1 said:
Tim is going to switch from taking out the weaker players week after week, to now keeping the weaker players with him to the end. I believe this is what he means by changing his strategy. He now is playing with the endgame in sight. Like a chess master making his play many moves in advance, this is what he is doing.

He is choosing which of the housemates he wants to be with to the end for strategic reasons, preferably the ones he can pick out and take down easily, e.g. like Mikkayla, Tahan, and Drew. All these characters have serious 'flaws' about them one way or another which Tim can manipulate for his advantage. However for people like the sugar sisters and Ben, Tim has almost nothing on them. And with regards to Tim's strategy and his style of playing the game, he would probably regard them as stronger/harder players.

Tim's strategy is to plant seeds and cut people down by their 'flaws' one by one, under the guise of just a silly 'prankster' and an 'honest' person. Or alternatively just leave them to be because they are so boring. This is why Ben is Tim's biggest threat. He's so low on the social totem pole, he's such a harmless nice guy, Tim has no weapons to take him out with. In contrast to say alpha male Matt, or someone like Tahan, or anyone else, Ben is effectively immune to Tim's style of play. That's why Tim's strategy is to rile up Ben, make him lose his cool one way or another whether through 'harmless pranks' or something else. And bring something bad out of him so he can take him down with. However Tim has noticed, the more overt he is with his measures, the more he is met with disapproval by the group in general and the more he is made out to be an arse 'bad guy' rather than just a 'silly prankster'. He is acutely aware of what is going on within the house and possible perceptions outside of the house at all times.

So it'll be interesting to see how Tim takes it from here, especially considering it's already half-way into the game and he already has the endgame in sight.
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Thank you for your post. It is clear that is what Tim is doing.
 
greypossum said:
These Sportsbet odds are strange. Especially for Tahan.
I'm curious as to how many people here are actually voting and how few votes the true evictee will get.
I am voting for Tahan this week but I wont say exactly how many times I have voted.
If these REAL eviction odds by Centrebet are accurate, I have an idea how many may be needed to put her above Mikkayla.
Not sure if she can beat Ben though.

Ed 1.80
Matt 2.80
Katie/Lucy 4.50
Tahan 11.00
Mikkayla 13.00
Ben 17.00
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I never vote
 
greypossum said:
I'm curious as to how many people here are actually voting
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I am on Telstra $30 a month prepaid with bonus calls and texts so at the end of each month I have $30 just vanish as it doesn't accumulate. Last season I used it to save Ben. I haven't used it yet this season but when I do it will be to save Tahan. It doesn't expire to oct 1st and I am confident she'll be safe this week for me not to use it yet.

EDIT: What I wonder is how many people don't vote because they don't think their votes will count for enough. They always say it is "close" and sometimes it's 1% difference but would my 56 votes be the difference? meh may as well not bother and just use the credit in google play
 
I was going to vote Ben just so mikkayla isn't fake evicted. Then I realized it was Ben so I didn't bother and just voted Tahan
 
Cowie said:
I am on Telstra $30 a month prepaid with bonus calls and texts so at the end of each month I have $30 just vanish as it doesn't accumulate. Last season I used it to save Ben. I haven't used it yet this season but when I do it will be to save Tahan. It doesn't expire to oct 1st and I am confident she'll be safe this week for me not to use it yet.

EDIT: What I wonder is how many people don't vote because they don't think their votes will count for enough. They always say it is "close" and sometimes it's 1% difference but would my 56 votes be the difference? meh may as well not bother and just use the credit in google play
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I wouldn't be too sure she will be safe. Matt and Sister haave had very high percentages before 27% and 22% and Ed twin is causing a lot of noise and twitter and his blog. Mikkayla and Ben are also very safe.
 
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