Could Australia really get same-sex marriage by the end of next week?
PUSHING its way onto the national agenda with more regularity than an actual wedding anniversary, same-sex marriage once again has Canberra buzzing.
Australia is the only English speaking democracy that has failed to legislate for the measure.
But there are now serious suggestions that by the end of next week Australia could become the latest country to say “I do” to people of the same gender getting married.
After years of back and forth on the issue, could it really be coming to a head this quickly? And can it even happen without a plebiscite?
Certainly, the push is on. But those against the measure aren’t going down without one heck of a fight.
The Government’s policy is for a non-binding public vote on marriage equality.Source:Supplied
WHAT’S THE GOVERNMENT’S POSITION ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE?
Officially the Government’s only position is to have a non-binding public vote on the issue — the much talked about plebiscite — which MPs could then choose to heed or ignore when it came to the proper vote in parliament.
The problem is, the parliamentary vote to allow the public vote to inform the parliamentary vote didn’t pass the senate.
SO STALEMATE?
Absolutely. The Turnbull Government has a policy for a plebiscite that can’t happen in its current form. It’s dead plan walking.
But just because the public vote is in cold storage, doesn’t mean the issue is going away.
And the longer the issue isn’t resolved, the longer it bangs about creating lots of noise crowding out other issues.
Tim Wilson (right) entered federal Parliament in the blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Goldstein in 2014 with his partner Ryan Bolger (left). Picture: Josie Hayden.Source:News Corp Australia
WHAT’S CHANGED ALL OF A SUDDEN?
Firstly, Parliament is reconvening next week, which could bring on a vote for marriage equality.
Secondly, a number of Liberal backbenchers are pushing for the issue to be sorted.
Liberal MP Tim Wilson is backing a free vote. On Monday, he told Sky News: “It’s in our best interests to move on from this issue so we can focus on the sorts of things I think people voted for me and for my party to deal with — tax reform, fixing the budget, national security.”
Thirdly, Malcolm Turnbull seems to have, ever so subtly, changed his tune on the issue.
WHAT DID THE PM ACTUALLY SAY?
Malcolm in the middle is in a huge pickle. He bloody loves the gays — he’s a regular at Sydney’s Mardi Gras — but when he toppled Tony Abbott he agreed to the plebiscite.
Any move away from this brings the conservative side of the Coalition ranks into fits of rage.
But on Monday, Mr Turnbull said backbenchers “have always had the right to cross the floor”.
Indeed, it’s Liberal party tradition for its MPs to be allowed to vote as they please on conscience votes. Reiterating that point is a huge boost to the pro marriage equality side.
Malcolm Turnbull finds himself in a tricky position he is desperate to find a way out of. Picture: Lawrence PinderSource:News Corp Australia
I BET THAT HASN’T GONE DOWN WELL WITH SOME MPs?
No sireee. Unnamed sources have said Turnbull’s leadership is “terminal” if he can’t keep the agitators in line.
There’s talk of yet another leadership coup, installing Peter Dutton as PM. There are also grave mutterings of pro-marriage equality MPs, such as Mr Wilson and Brisbane member Trevor Evans, being deselected before the next election.
Mathias Cormann, a senior conservative figure, has insisted Mr Turnbull enjoys the support of cabinet and the party room.
But then, we’ve heard that all before.
ISN’T A VOTE WITHOUT A PLEBISCITE GOING AGAINST PARTY POLICY?
It is for Coalition MPs. But some say, like a groom jilted at the alter many moons ago, it’s time to move on.
Mr Evans told Emma Alberici on ABC’s Lateline on Monday that he voted for and “spoke very strongly” in favour of a plebiscite, but that battle was lost.
“We have the stalemate that doesn’t serve the interests of the nation or the government.”
The Parliament “needed to find another way” or the focus would continually shift back to marriage equality, which would only benefit Labor, he said.
There are rumblings a change of direction on marriage equality could see Peter Dutton depose Malcolm Turnbull and become PM. Picture: AAP Image/Joe CASTRO.Source:AAP
WHAT ABOUT A POSTAL PLEBISCITE?
This is many conservative MPs’ preferred plan B and it’s easier to implement as you don’t need legislation to approve it.
Conservative Liberal senator Eric Abetz told AAP the plebiscite is the “superior option”.
Mr Evans said the time has passed for a plebiscite and the “most sensible way forward” is a vote.
Also, many feel a postal plebiscite will have even less credibility than the original plebiscite.
SO HOW COULD MARRIAGE EQUALITY BECOME LEGAL?
A few ways. The Government could give a plebiscite another shot in the senate. But key independents who voted no, like Nick Xenophon and Derryn Hinch, seem in no mood to change their mind.
The first clue to a new path way will come on Monday when the Liberal party will have a party room meeting where marriage equality is expected to be raised.
The MPs could decide the plebiscite is a dog of a policy, and nix it, paving the way for a clean conscience vote.
But if the plebiscite policy stays around then four Liberal MPs would need to defy their party and support a procedural motion to allow a same-sex marriage bill to be introduced.
If that motion passed, then a marriage bill could be introduced.
Federal MP for the seat of Brisbane, Trevor Evans, has said the plebiscite is dead and a new route is needed to get the issue off the table. Picture: Lyndon MechielsenSource:News Corp Australia
IS IT LIKELY?
Either option is very possible but a lot of hurdles remain.
Expect a number of MPs to say ditching a plebiscite will anger the public and enrage party members.
The pressure on Liberal MPs not to cross the floor will also be immense.
Even if they believe party members in their own electorates will keep faith with them, the thought they could help bring down the Prime Minister will weigh heavy.
But if these MPs think they are on the right side of history and public opinion — and that the threat of a leadership challenge is overblown — then it is absolutely possible Australia could get gay marriage next week.
