Episode Survivor: Brains vs Brawn - Episode 13

…how many idols or rewards will be ‘found’ tonight?…

  • 0

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 1

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 2

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 3

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 10

    Votes: 2 40.0%

  • fuck it!… everyone gets one!

    Votes: 3 60.0%
  • Total voters
    5
Mr Stickyfingers

Mr Stickyfingers

an old fart that rants at times...
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…evenin’ all… with all the bullshit of last night with idols and rewards being ‘found’ with such ease because of blatant Producer interference… my Poll says it all… the Poll is as ridiculous as the amount that are now on the show itself… it’s just getting ridiculous and is completely spoiling the show for everybody… you only get one choice in the Poll tonight… and Kaz…not 10 options either lol!… cheers.
 
…aw fuckit!… fuckit!… fuckit!… I’ve done it again haven’t I ?… I’ve posted it 4 days early haven’t I?… a conversation between my sweet darling wife and I just a moment ago…

Wife:… “what time does the’1% club’ start tonight?”…
Me:… “it doesn’t… it’s Wednesday… it’s ‘Survivor’ tonight”…
Wife:… “when am I ever wrong?… think about it”…
Me:… “aw fuckit!… I’ve done it again!… fuckit!… fuckit!… fuckit!”…
Wife:… “stop swearing!… you know I don’t like it!”…
Me:… “sorry babe”…

…and… here I am… and yes… I’m now watching the 1% club… bye all… cheers.
 
Brekkie said:
Assume this isn't till Sunday.

Everyone getting an idol might actually make them more interesting.
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…actually Brekkie… that might be a great idea… then they would all be trying to flush the idols out from day 1… it would be a shit fight wouldn’t it?… lol!… knowing from the start that everyone has them would form alliances at the get go… ooooh!… the mind boggles… cheers.
 
So we've still got 13 left at the half way point of the series with 2 of the 3 non-elimination episodes so far as a result of people quitting so guess we're due at least one more planned non-elimination episode. Wouldn't be surprised if PD ultimately has to quit too although at this stage we're passed voting off injured people as a liability to the tribe. If he stays he could get dragged to near the end.

I still think we could go a series without a tribe swap - or at least without a full reshuffle. It's not that interesting viewing seeing the bigger OG tribe on each new tribe just picking off the others - perhaps it would work better if it was done at a point where the new tribes could be a 50/50 split. The only positive I guess is it made sure AJ blew up his own game and will be a very easy early target post-merge.
 
Here is the complete confessional count of the pre merge. Honestly its a bit more of a balanced edit than most other seasons IMO. Rather than one or two massive characters the edit has largely been a semi-even split between 7 characters. The only ones getting no airtime and no storline are mostly the brawn tribe sans Paulie, I am thinking this is leading to a Brain win. I'll add my thoughts on each player's winning chances too.

confessionalcount2025.png
 
Here are my mid season power rankings for who I think is most likely to win Survivor AU 2025. PSA I have stayed away from boot list leaks or sportsbet odds this season. I don't want to know any spoilers for this at all.

Out of contention/Players with no intros shown

13th PD: I think it is pretty obvious where his story is going. I expect him to be either a full medivac or he may quit the game by asking to be voted out kind of like Moana in CvC1. But there is no way this guy is winning simply because of his lack of storyline. He was relevant as Nash’s alliance member and that is it. We didn’t even hear from him in confessional about his injury. We are clearly not meant to get attached to him. Shame, he seems like a nice guy and is apparently a big fan of the show.

12th Kristen: Despite the fact that I think she played the swap portion of the game really well, I don’t see her as a winner at all simply because she is only ever shown when relevant. We know nothing off her other than she was in Nash’s alliance and has found an idol. Even as a swapped minority we only hear from Paulie and Noonan rather than her. She only appeared in the last few episodes when her idol was mentioned, nothing about her actually talking about her game. I assume Myles is going to play his advantage to steal Kirstin’s idol and she may be voted out.

11th Jesse: The only Brawn left aside from Paulie who actually gets a semblance of a narrative. We know from other players he is somewhat naïve but is also on the top of his tribe, indicating he is a strong social player positioned well in the current tribe. However, his story has started to turn negative. Lots of content has been shown regarding Kate wanting to take him out due to his tyrant status. I suspect he could well likely be the merge boot or simply going to be voted out very soon.
 
Likely not winning

10th AJ: The biggest character so far on the show but is definitely looking likely to be headed towards a nasty fall. The show edits him to be this incredibly arrogant, smug and so self-assured dick. Everyone is constantly talking about wanting to take him out and the only positive thing ever said about him is how he is a good shield. But there is no way his story could possibly result in a win with the not only bad edit but also poor misguided gameplay. Strategically he has good ideas, but his actual delivery of these moves, i.e. the hostages, have been socially flawed. I suspect he will be a boot in an episode that will just absolutely clown him. I get the feeling we are meant to be heavily rooting against him.

9th Morgan: She is simply just not on the show in any significant form. She was introduced in episode 1 and is aligned with Kate but we know nothing about her game thoughts or plans. She just isn’t a character on the show that’s been given any substance at all. I don’t think she’s looking to be a relevant player in the coming end game. I suspect she and Kate will play with the brains and flip, but I don’t see her arc developing from anything as of yet.

8th Kate: She was last on my list for a long while until her break out this week of wanting to form a girl’s alliance together to take down Jesse. I think her story is leading to her flipping on the brawn to turn on Jesse. She’s been the one lately to communicate her annoyance towards him. But because her breakout was so late into the show, I only see her being relevant until she does vote out Jesse. She may just end up as a casualty of the Brawn tribe being Pagonged honestly.

7th Zara: She has only become a major character as of late, but her slow burner story arc has now turned into a full-blown villain. Especially about her relationship with Laura and her decision to hijack Laura’s advantage. She is being set up to be taken out by Laura seeking vengeance. She is only being shown when she is either scolding Myles or when Laura says she strongarmed her. She may be a big blindside coming up, but I think she is well-connected and secure with her social bonds with multiple players for the minute.
 
Could possibly be a winner

6th Paulie: The only Brawn with a well-told story and character complexity. We have been shown personal content regarding his dad, we have been shown his relationships with people like Noonan and we’ve also been shown finding his idol and his strategic thoughts through confessional. He is one of the more well-rounded players in the story and has gotten a mostly positive edit. Until later episodes where he’s been referred to as a snake oil salesman and a threat. He enters merge with the change of being able to join the brain alliance even if on the bottom more than the other brawns. He could also flip back to Brawn if he wants, he’s in a good spot, I’m really interested to see where his storyline goes.

5th Logan: She is serving Shonee energy, and she has been iconic. IMO anyway. But I’m not sure if I see her as a winner as such. I see her more as the foil to AJ in the story. She is constantly the one to talk about wanting to get rid of AJ, and now that she has an idol, she is in a good spot to be able to do that. We know she is Laura’s best friend in the game, but I feel of the two she is given the least complexity. Most of the time her story involves AJ in some way. Her entire narrative is mostly her connection with another protagonist, which makes me doubt she Is a winner, but rather maybe a deep runner who is an important player to keep an eye on. I am absolutely adoring her, and she is probably my favourite character of the season.

4th Myles: He is the one person I am honestly stuck on what to think of them. He is a constant likeable present to the audience but is also a very poorly positioned player who has played a very scrappy underdog type of game. His major storyline other than being a power bottom like Simon, is him having a big mouth and being too openly strategic. Whilst there is potential, he could run away with the title just like in Kristie or Jericho fashion, but I just don’t see him realistically being a winner of this game. I’d be happy to be proven wrong, as he is a fantastic character who is unique and quirky, and his win would be refreshing. But I just don’t see it happening. I do however expect to see him make a very deep run into the season.
 
My Winner Contenders

3rd Kaelan: This golden retriever may be quiet, but I am not sleeping on him being a winner candidate. He isn’t the loudest and proudest character or narrative, but the show reminds us he is relevant numerous times and each time he is shown it is emphasised heavily. His intro in episode 2 showing him playing the clueless coconut guy screams longevity to me. Maybe his game is just something that genuinely started quiet and it is the merge where he shines. I think he is being set up to be a strong player in the game and either a winner contender or a big shock boot later on. It will be interesting to hear more from him as he plays the merge.

2nd Karin: One of the best players whose edit on paper looks very clean and consistent. We hear all about her strategic thinking, feelings towards others and we see her presence on screen constantly. She has also been shown to be strong physically, in many alliances and well-liked by other players such as her number one ally Zara. Although, aside from the many narrating confessionals she gets, she doesn’t get much in the edit that sets her apart from everyone else. I can picture her winning, if not then she could make a great returnee someday.

1st Laura: I was very wrong last year with my winner pick (Valeria) and I could very well be wrong here too with Laura, but I am getting the feeling that she is going to be the Sole Survivor. In the first episode she is introduced to us as a white witch with magical sounding music, and she also names the alliance “the coven” and is the one to talk of the alliance the most in confessional. We are shown her friendships with people like Logan and Richard, we get insight into her plans such as wanting Rich as a shield, and we also get content about her being a witch and manifesting things like the advantage. I think if anything she and Logan will be a dangerous duo at the merge, and they will get the revenge they want on people like Zara and AJ. So, I see Laura as the winner of the series. However, it could be a toss-up at this pointbetween the top contenders. It’s not an obvious winner edit like Hayley or David.
 
Interesting thoughts but I do think Laura's time will be up soon, probably betrayed by Zara. Her complete panic at being on the radar in that vote this week plus being tactically naive with her advantage doesn't look promising to me.

Your 2nd-4th being too three I could buy into though.
 
Brekkie said:
Interesting thoughts but I do think Laura's time will be up soon, probably betrayed by Zara. Her complete panic at being on the radar in that vote this week plus being tactically naive with her advantage doesn't look promising to me.

Your 2nd-4th being too three I coukd buy into though.
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IMO it’s a complete toss up between the top brains on my list. Maybe other than Logan, but I’m still not ruling her out. I do wonder if the graduates alliance highlights the winner? The more I think about it Myles could even be higher as well. Tonight’s episode will give more away.
 
…Zcsund Zcsund Zcsund… what a fantastic well thought out analysis that was!… actually… it was quite outstanding… I nearly agree with most of your summations except for one thing… if you swapped the ‘white witch’ and Myles around with each other it would be perfect… I’m not saying that because I picked Myles from day one to win this but it’s because Myles has quite an understanding of the game itself and perhaps has some more hidden moves under his belt that we’ve not seen yet… (I actually think that he’s one of the rare few that have actually watched Surivor before to be honest)…

…but yeah my friend… a great list there… well done!… it’s so precise and detailed… a credit to you… if I was a teacher and was marking you I’d give you 9.5 out of 10… (after all… we don’t want you to get a big head do we?)… lol!… cheers.
 
…one good thing… at least I don’t have to do a last minute panic thread do I?… (although… having had it put up 4 days too early did garner quite a few good comments didn’t it?)… was it a good mistake of mine to create 4 days too early so that people can write their comments at a more leisurely pace over the 4 days?… that’s food for thought… what do you think peoples?… cheers.
 
…evenin’ all… so!… Brawn and Brains have now merged eh?… how unexpected… not!… first reward challenge is starting… cheers.
 
…a VIP cocktail party is the reward… 5 minutes in and they’re dropping like flies… cheers.
 
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