At this stage, I'm suspicious that they will have one or two intruders, and given this is a shorter season, I doubt there will be a Top 3 on the final day. More likely a Top 4 or 5.
I'm not a politics guy, but I think Jane, Michael and Bruce will all be packing their bags well and truly before the finale due to their views. The Australian public will almost certainly do their best to kick them out the moment they get nominated. Holly will be a mid-to-late season exit, I think, and Colin will probably have a healthy run (but certainly not an early exit).
My opinions will likely change in the days and weeks ahead, but my current expected Top 3 are:
Abiola
Vinnie
Conor
As to who wins....probably Vinnie at the moment, but I expect either Abiola or Conor to walk away the winner unless things change in the house.