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BB 2025 season ratings thread
- Thread starter Sctb88
- Start date
I've been keeping a very close eye on Ten's ratings this year for each reality show, and tbh I am not expecting great things but if the series can at least match Masterchef/Celeb's 750,000 odd then I will consider it a success.
The Launch may do well, I would love for it to beat I'm a Celeb's 1.09 Million, and even better if it got closer to the 1.2 Million mark (I am talking 7 day consolidation BTW as I think thats the fairest way to compare ratings potential) but I'll settle for it to at least get 900,000.
Most of Ten's shows have hovered around 550,000-650,000 in overnights and then the adjustment has depended on the show. I'm a celeb and Masterchef were consistently average, Amazing race did well in the beginning, Survivor Brain v Brawn 2 started off okay but increased post merge and Aus V The World was the best consistent performer across the board.
Given it's heading towards Summer I don't think it will likely crack that 800,000 for the overall average, but I'd love to be proven wrong. I'm going to low ball my guess that the show will average 785,000. Even though the advertising campaign has been great I am doubtful it has reached the number of people we actually want it to. Please let me be wrong!
The Launch may do well, I would love for it to beat I'm a Celeb's 1.09 Million, and even better if it got closer to the 1.2 Million mark (I am talking 7 day consolidation BTW as I think thats the fairest way to compare ratings potential) but I'll settle for it to at least get 900,000.
Most of Ten's shows have hovered around 550,000-650,000 in overnights and then the adjustment has depended on the show. I'm a celeb and Masterchef were consistently average, Amazing race did well in the beginning, Survivor Brain v Brawn 2 started off okay but increased post merge and Aus V The World was the best consistent performer across the board.
Given it's heading towards Summer I don't think it will likely crack that 800,000 for the overall average, but I'd love to be proven wrong. I'm going to low ball my guess that the show will average 785,000. Even though the advertising campaign has been great I am doubtful it has reached the number of people we actually want it to. Please let me be wrong!
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I think the launch will be very disappointing regarding viewers. I think most of Australia still has no idea BBAU is back. I mean who watches free to air tv, let alone channel 10 these days. All my mates and family only know it’s returning because I’m obsessed and have been telling them.
I do think word of mouth will spread incredibly quick, given the 24/7 live streams I think once the country knows it’s happening they will tune in.
I expect the first Sunday eviction night will have higher viewers than anything in the first week.
I do think word of mouth will spread incredibly quick, given the 24/7 live streams I think once the country knows it’s happening they will tune in.
I expect the first Sunday eviction night will have higher viewers than anything in the first week.
They've already killed it off by scheduling it in November and doing it for half the time it really needs. Sadly I'm not expecting numbers much better than Seven's last outing but they'll be spun quite differently.
The idea of the run being a "pilot" is ridiculous - I'd be amazed if it gets figures that make 10 think "we'll give it 2-3 months next year".
The idea of the run being a "pilot" is ridiculous - I'd be amazed if it gets figures that make 10 think "we'll give it 2-3 months next year".
James T
Your eviction prediction priestess™
If I had to make a guess for week 1:
Sunday Launch - 1.15m - MKR and Golden Bachelor are doing really well at the moment, BB is launching to some serious competition.
Monday Live Special - 900k - currently Selling Houses Australia averages around 800k in the slot with it lifting to 900k for Sam Pang Tonight
Tuesday DS - 850k - TBYG has completely tanked this slot for 10 currently, Audiences do come back for the Cheap Seats but 850k seems generous
Wednesday DS - 740k-790k - 10 is usually pretty weak against ABC on a Wednesday, Hard Quiz may challenge for the same audience and pull audience halfway through BB's slot.
Thursday DS - 900k - 10 does well on Thursdays, shouldn't have much to worry about
Friday DS - 600k - could be higher but my expectations are low for fridays, I don't think the majority of 10's core primetime audience are at home on Friday nights, and Better Homes/Gardening Australia have a captive audience which can be very challenging to compete with.
Sunday Launch - 1.15m - MKR and Golden Bachelor are doing really well at the moment, BB is launching to some serious competition.
Monday Live Special - 900k - currently Selling Houses Australia averages around 800k in the slot with it lifting to 900k for Sam Pang Tonight
Tuesday DS - 850k - TBYG has completely tanked this slot for 10 currently, Audiences do come back for the Cheap Seats but 850k seems generous
Wednesday DS - 740k-790k - 10 is usually pretty weak against ABC on a Wednesday, Hard Quiz may challenge for the same audience and pull audience halfway through BB's slot.
Thursday DS - 900k - 10 does well on Thursdays, shouldn't have much to worry about
Friday DS - 600k - could be higher but my expectations are low for fridays, I don't think the majority of 10's core primetime audience are at home on Friday nights, and Better Homes/Gardening Australia have a captive audience which can be very challenging to compete with.
Are you talking reach or average as I'd honestly be surprised if it tops 600k all week in the average. IIRC Survivor in the overnights only gets around 600k.
It's just so dumb not to hold off until the New Year - even against the monster that is MAFS there is a bigger potential audience around for 10 in February than in November.
It's just so dumb not to hold off until the New Year - even against the monster that is MAFS there is a bigger potential audience around for 10 in February than in November.
sav0001
Well-Known Member
Is Golden Bachelor really doing that well? Every episode it has gone down, the last episode had only 612k watching, down 137k from the 749k that watched the launch. Those are pretty mediocre ratings for channel 9.
Also it's doing quite poor with the 16-39 demographic, Love Island which followed it on Tuesday outrated it in that demo by 58k and was only 27k behind in 9s key demo of 25-54s. Personally I don't see it as a big competitor for BB.
Aussiebrotherinuk
New Member
I think given the time of year and DOND repeats are getting around 250k, that we shouldn’t expect to see BB go too high. I would expect around 350k for DS, but seven day consolidated to be double (and some?) on this.
Need to remember that seven day / 28 days consolidated figures are super important, as if it is driving people to their streaming service, then is a big plus for sponsorship / ad revenue.
I’d love to see the launch show around 600k - as this would be deemed a success for ten. But given the lead in is 10news+, this doesn’t give me too much hope
Need to remember that seven day / 28 days consolidated figures are super important, as if it is driving people to their streaming service, then is a big plus for sponsorship / ad revenue.
I’d love to see the launch show around 600k - as this would be deemed a success for ten. But given the lead in is 10news+, this doesn’t give me too much hope
sav0001
Well-Known Member
If the daily shows only get 350k overnight, personally I would consider that a massive flop given how much marketing 10 has put into BB.
That would be horrible, especially since MasterChef’s low points were only high 400,000 in overnights. 350,000 would be dismal.
Aussiebrotherinuk
New Member
Don’t get me wrong, I’m hoping for higher (and I do think launch and first week will rate higher, but expecting these form second week onwards). I just think this time of year, we see a decline in ratings in general. And DOND are playing repeats which generally rate lower anyway.
So im hoping streaming will boost this right up.
So im hoping streaming will boost this right up.
I was looking at the oztam reports for same November Monday in 2024, TEN had dessert masters at that time and that bombed at 398,000.... Big Brother cannot possibly do THAT BAD
Aussiebrotherinuk
New Member
They also had the project as their lead in. Not 10news+ and DOND
Im going in with lower expectations with the goal of being surprised - and more than happy to be proved wrong too!
sav0001
Well-Known Member
That would be my guess too, it will depend how many viewers the show keeps engaged past the first week.
They'd be very lucky to have the final outrate the launch regardless of how well the series goes just because of the time of the year.
I feel this is lose-lose on the "pilot" front. If it doesn't rate well but they're already committed to a second series they won't want to give it anymore airtime, even if part of the factor in it's poor ratings is it's ridiculously short run time (IMO as much of an issue as no live streams or it being pre-recorded!). And if it does rate well they'll think everyone loves the new shorter format so stick with it.
I mean, we can safely assume they're locked in for a certain commitment, and it would be absurd to centre the 2026 upfront so heavily around it and then have to backtrack.
I do think this proof of concept run is a smart idea. If it falters, they can still pivot with format adjustments. I'd bet they'll be investing heavy on the market research.
BBantUK07
Countess Cunt
I think Sundays and Mondays will probably get high to low 700’s. Daily shows around 600’s.
That being said I think there’s a chance we could be shocked. Marketing has been next level, 3 month campaign, busses, buildings, paintings, Instagram ads. I don’t think I’ve ever got an Instagram ad for any reality tv show.
I do also think there’s been a rise in free to air tv viewers over the last few years. Only a few years ago mafs had dipped abit and was only pulling 700-800k, mkr was pulling 400k, the voice was pulling 600-700k. Now these are all smashing it, over 800k.
For people in their 20’s they grew up with nine era so it was still magical to them and holds some great memories which is what they remember. And obviously people older will have had the ten era so over all many age groups hold good memories with the show.
I think word of mouth is strong and I’m shocked at the amount of people I’ve spoken too who don’t watch tv who are so keen for this series from people in their 20’s ranging to 60’s.
I am however concerned for Thursdays and Fridays, love island is only four nights a week and I find it tedious, but that’s just me anyway. And Fridays always did shit on nine.
I think interest will be strong on launch, so hopefully they can sustain viewers throughout the series.
That being said I think there’s a chance we could be shocked. Marketing has been next level, 3 month campaign, busses, buildings, paintings, Instagram ads. I don’t think I’ve ever got an Instagram ad for any reality tv show.
I do also think there’s been a rise in free to air tv viewers over the last few years. Only a few years ago mafs had dipped abit and was only pulling 700-800k, mkr was pulling 400k, the voice was pulling 600-700k. Now these are all smashing it, over 800k.
For people in their 20’s they grew up with nine era so it was still magical to them and holds some great memories which is what they remember. And obviously people older will have had the ten era so over all many age groups hold good memories with the show.
I think word of mouth is strong and I’m shocked at the amount of people I’ve spoken too who don’t watch tv who are so keen for this series from people in their 20’s ranging to 60’s.
I am however concerned for Thursdays and Fridays, love island is only four nights a week and I find it tedious, but that’s just me anyway. And Fridays always did shit on nine.
I think interest will be strong on launch, so hopefully they can sustain viewers throughout the series.