Ok it's my turn to speculate and the conclusion I've come up with is that we got it wrong in this thread back when Tully said this on November 11th:
Tully Smyth @ tee_smyth
Cannot believe we're already organising NYE plans and Xmas hasn't already happened! Where has the year gone? Oh...wait.
At the time people assumed that she meant "we're" as in her, Drew and possibly Tim. Yet none of the three ever confirmed they were spending NYE together from what I recall. I think that conclusion was jumped to because the three of them were in Sydney at the time when in fact it looks like she was referring to her friends.
Two years ago (bear with me here for a moment) Tully tweeted:
So! Who has some pimping beach house they want to rent me for NYE? Apparently we were not original in our "lets go camping" idea...
Last year her and Tahlia (and maybe some friends) spent NYE at Seal Rocks (3hrs away from Sydney for those not from here). This year Tahlia is back there again. Obviously Tully wasn't going to go so I think her and her friends went back to the beach house idea again. Tully was never going to come to Melbourne on a week that she has Luna - I think hell would freeze over first - and especially not with Tahlia away as considering the circumstances surrounding the split, I don't think she'd really ask Tahlia to have Luna during her week so she could spend time with her new boyfriend. So she was always going to be in NSW and we had zero confirmation that Drew would join her. We just assumed he would but thinking about it more, I don't think it was ever their plan. It seems she usually spends NYE out of Sydney in a beach environment. Plus more importantly, I'm pretty sure Sam and Libby are still in town from Bali and so even ignoring the possible money issue and Tully's friends, why would we expect him to leave Melbourne for NYE? I don't even think Tully would expect that of him.
*disclaimer: For all I know he could show up at the beach house tomorrow but I suspect even if he were offered a free flight he wouldn't. The circumstances just don't add up. I really think we're the ones who took one tweet and ran with it and now that's added to some people's expectations, disappointment and worry that this is a sign they've broken up when in actuality no couple of less than 2 months should have any of this expected of them. Just my opinion anyway.