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HMs odds of winning over time.

APABLD

APABLD

Well-Known Member
Thought it would be interesting to post the odds of winning from earlier in the series and see how much they've changed.

This was Sportsbet, Week 1:
Ben 5.00
Matthew 6.50
Ed 7.00
Any Other (Not Listed) 8.00
Xavier 8.00
Heidi 10.00
Caleb 11.00
Jasmin 12.00
Tully 12.00
Drew 15.00
Mikkayla 17.00
Sharon 17.00
Jade 19.00
Tim 21.00
Tahan 26.00

Centrebet, Week 6:
Tim 3.00
Ben 3.30
Drew 7.00
Matt 7.00
Ed 11.00
Jade 11.00
Tahan 15.00
Katie/Lucy 15.00
Heidi 17.00
Mikkayla 21.00
Tully 34.00

Centrebet, Week 9:
Ben 1.80
Tim 2.80
Drew 8.00
Jade 12.00
Mikkayla 13.00
Ed 14.00
Tahan 17.00
Katie & Lucy 41.00

Centrebet, current:
Tim 1.70
Tahan 3.50
Drew 5.00
Jade 16.00
Ed 19.00
Boog 26.00
Madaline 34.00
 
Poor Ben. He wasn't meant to leave at all and was supposed to win. That's what is sad about it. :( That was the belief among many, that they couldn't just fathom him leaving and so he left as people thought they didn't have to vote. Although do have to wonder how he always topped the votes until the week he left.

Although lol at the Ed and Matt being so high up and Tim at the bottom at the start.
 
funny how Tim, Tahan and Jade were bottom 3 initially, now they're top 4 to win.
 
Poona said:
Poor Ben. He wasn't meant to leave at all and was supposed to win. That's what is sad about it. :( That was the belief among many, that they couldn't just fathom him leaving and so he left as people thought they didn't have to vote. Although do have to wonder how he always topped the votes until the week he left.

Although lol at the Ed and Matt being so high up and Tim at the bottom at the start.
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Tim annoyed the hell out of me week 1 I get why he'd be down there...

Ben would've EASILY WON ....that was sooo sad :(


and for all those people who are all "omg tahan will win because she beat tim and ben blah blah"

umm first week drew had more saves than both tim and ben...lol doubt that'd happen ever again!
 
As a tv character Tim can be entertaining (except for ending every sentence with an intonation like a question and the stupid giggle/cover mouth thing). But as an adult he is rather sad and pathetic. However he reminds me of EZ from Three's a Crowd (the Three's company spinoff):

EZ.jpg
 
Tim reminds me of Russel Brandt I love Tim, child like quality ❤️
 
Within 3 seconds of Tim's intro, I knew he'd win. And most people hated him. So I have a sense of pride about that.
 
Took awhile for Tim to grow on a lot of people. His loud, in your face persona was kinda out there and different. I think the way matt, caleb and ed thought of themselves so freaken highly and so poorly of Tim, and never quit bagging Tim to anyone that would listen, soften Tim to the public and his support grew.
 
I'm actually starting to think Drew might win. Tim is still my favourite and I want him to win but even I can see that he's been going backwards rapidly the past few weeks. I think it started when Boog entered but it started getting more obvious when Ben left.

Tahan has certainly toned herself down in the past month or so...and while she's certainly become more likeable to the general audience, she hasn't really done anything of interest in a long time now. While she does have a consistent fanbase, I'm wondering whether the voters that got her the large spikes in votes the past two weeks might drop off a bit if she doesn't do anything of note in the next couple of weeks. I think Tahan lost a bit when Mikk left because their rivalry was the main thing that got both of them so much attention IMO.

Maddie should go on Wed and I think the best Boog and Jade can hope for is a top 3 finish without seriously contesting for the win. Surely Ed wont go close.

That just leaves Drew, and I think he's peaking at just the right time. He might just pip Tim and Tahan at the finish. He's not really who I'd want to win (I think he's had a pretty easy ride) but if it means bloody Ed doesn't get close then I'm all for it.
 
Michael Nguyen said:
Drew win? LOL
It's between Tim and Tahan
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I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility. The way I see it, I think Tim is starting to go backwards and Tahan is starting to become a little stagnant while Drew is beginning to gain momentum. The same exact thing happened last year where Michael started to slip around this time and Ben came through and took it out. He's starting to get back a lot of the fans he lost during Drully and he'll pick up the tweenie vote too. Also his fans won't think he's a safe bet of final 2 like Tim's and Tahan's will so they'll be voting like crazy. Not saying he'll win...but I certainly think he's a bigger chance than a lot think.
 
Gemini said:
I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility. The way I see it, I think Tim is starting to go backwards and Tahan is starting to become a little stagnant while Drew is beginning to gain momentum. The same exact thing happened last year where Michael started to slip around this time and Ben came through and took it out. He's starting to get back a lot of the fans he lost during Drully and he'll pick up the tweenie vote too. Also his fans won't think he's a safe bet of final 2 like Tim's and Tahan's will so they'll be voting like crazy. Not saying he'll win...but I certainly think he's a bigger chance than a lot think.
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Completely agree. Can't help but relate Tim to Michael last year. Michael started going backwards nearing the end and only made top 4. People didn't really see Ben's win coming at the beginning. Ben's fans and Layla's fans voted like crazy towards the end after seeing that Estelle was about to win. I think Drew also has a fair chance.
 
kitty1 said:
Completely agree. Can't help but relate Tim to Michael last year. Michael started going backwards nearing the end and only made top 4. People didn't really see Ben's win coming at the beginning. Ben's fans and Layla's fans voted like crazy towards the end after seeing that Estelle was about to win. I think Drew also has a fair chance.
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umm.....just to let you know the reason Michael started going backwards was because he hooked up with Estelle and throughout the whole season Michael hated her and nominated her constantly , he made the dumbest move last minute and his supporters turned against him.

He was the one who said everyone hates Estelle in the house and Estelle haters were supporting Michael. once Michael and Estelle hooked up he just looked hypocritical and pathetic.

Don't compare tim and Michael...irrelevant reason why Michael didn't win ...that'd be like tim and ed hooking up
 
natalia said:
umm.....just to let you know the reason Michael started going backwards was because he hooked up with Estelle and throughout the whole season Michael hated her and nominated her constantly , he made the dumbest move last minute and his supporters turned against him.

He was the one who said everyone hates Estelle in the house and Estelle haters were supporting Michael. once Michael and Estelle hooked up he just looked hypocritical and pathetic.

Don't compare tim and Michael...irrelevant reason why Michael didn't win ...that'd be like tim and ed hooking up
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I compared him to Michael because he was clearly the obvious choice to be the winner at the beginning, as is Tim. I'm not talking reasons like Estelle. Towards the end, the appeal of Michael started to fizzle out because people like Layla and Estelle became more popular. Drew and Tahan are clearly becoming more popular.

Don't get me wrong, Tim is one of my fave housemates and I do think he deserves to win. But a dark horse like Drew also has every chance of winning and I think that people shouldn't underestimate his fan base.
 
tilliii said:
Within 3 seconds of Tim's intro, I knew he'd win. And most people hated him. So I have a sense of pride about that.
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Same! I loved him from the get go and only a few other people on here felt the same way. Everyone else hated him until a few weeks in when they all jumped on the Tim bandwagon haha
 
kitty1 said:
I compared him to Michael because he was clearly the obvious choice to be the winner at the beginning, as is Tim. ... Drew and Tahan are clearly becoming more popular.

Don't get me wrong, Tim is one of my fave housemates and I do think he deserves to win. But a dark horse like Drew also has every chance of winning and I think that people shouldn't underestimate his fan base.
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I thought that the clear favourite to win this season was ben, based on his odds from week one.

Drew and Tim were equal favourites of mine!! I used to say I liked them both and didn't mind if either won BUT then drew went off and got with tully...which was a horrible choice on his behalf because he just made himself look like a complete douche bag.

I have no idea why tahan has so much popularity, she's so overrated, there's nothing good about tahan other than her looks. I don't get why people are even putting her up as a major competitor when the only reason she got so many votes was because people thought either ed or tahan would be going.

If in that week it had stayed between Tim Ben and Tahan she would have been evicted because the tim and ben fans would've voted their hearts out.

When people like ed and drew were up against tim and ben, fans just assumed that tim and ben would be safe and so didn't vote as much giving tahan heaps of votes (mostly from family)

I don't think this years housemates popularities can be linked with last years.

I mean just for more info (and major procrastination) I just looked at last year voting percentages and the only time Michael had most votes was when he was up against angie, Bradley and sam.

At one point angie received almost double votes when she was up against Estelle (favourite) and I mean that didn't mean angie would win....it was just that week
And also Bradley received more votes than ben when only 3 people were up.

To be honest throughout last year I thought Josh would win and I thought he was the clear favourite but I mean...poor guy withdrew, he was never even up for eviction!



I think at the end of the day the winner will be someone who has been consistent throughout the series and hasn't been up for eviction numerous times.... so if tahan was to win...she'd be insanely lucky.
 
murf said:
Same! I loved him from the get go and only a few other people on here felt the same way. Everyone else hated him until a few weeks in when they all jumped on the Tim bandwagon haha
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I think it had a lot to do with the fact he asked Matt if he had killed anyone! Put people off him straight away.
 
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