Game Australian Election 2022 Tipping Poll and live chat thread

[timmy]

Feel free to chat about election results here as they come to hand.

 

[beardymac]

I think it'll be a fair bit closer than we think. Fingers crossed it won't be a hung parliament as that ultimately benefits nobody.
My biggest hope is that if Labor gets in they show some teeth when it comes to media ownership and bias in this country. Shit's fucked.

Newscorp - owned/operated by US citizen Rupert Murdoch - foreign owned
Fairfax - merged with 9Entertainment

Network 10 - owned by US corporation Paramount Global - foreign owned
9Entertainment - chaired by former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello - Liberal slant
7 - owned by 7West Media - funded by mining companies, likely to have Liberal lean
ABC - Government owned, chaired by Ita Buttrose, who frequently attends Liberal Party fundraisers.
SBS - Government owned, chaired by George Savvides, formerly held directorial roles with Medibank and left shortly after it was privatised by Abbott (so likely the only one of the bunch with a possible Labor lean?)

 

[timmy]

@Consuela feeling very optimistic there. Or pessimistic. But hopefully optimistic.

 

[Consuela]

I've stocked up on the wine and will be settling in to watch Antony! Going to be an interesting one here in Brisbane, and may not even be called tonight.

One a whole though I don't think it'll be too late before Antony calls it.

 

[timmy]

I think it'll be a fair bit closer than we think. Fingers crossed it won't be a hung parliament as that ultimately benefits nobody.
My biggest hope is that if Labor gets in they show some teeth when it comes to media ownership and bias in this country. Shit's fucked.

Totally agree. But I am feeling optimistic for an early result. And I think there will be some surprise seat flips tonight.

Main disappointment is my (postal) vote won't even get counted for two weeks. Kinda takes the fun out of it knowing your vote doesn't count on the night. It's like you took part unnecessarily. Unless a final NSW senate seat goes down to the wire, perhaps.

 

[Consuela]

Hung parliament's are not the end of the world. Plenty of countries with proportion representing survive with coalitions and power sharing blocs. Not to mention the last hung parliament here was far more productive than anything we've seen recently.

I'm interested to see how much support UAP, PHON, and LD have especially on the coasts here from the anti vax crowd. Mainly whether Clive's big spend captured most of them. Newman and the LD's were not as active in their campaigning as I thought they'd be. Perhaps they realised Newman is still toxic?

Also will be interesting if QLD can get that second Greens senator.

 

[timmy]

Hung parliament's are not the end of the world. Plenty of countries with proportion representing survive with coalitions and power sharing blocs. Not to mention the last hung parliament here was far more productive than anything we've seen recently.

I'm interested to see how much support UAP, PHON, and LD have especially on the coasts here from the anti vax crowd. Mainly whether Clive's big spend captured most of them. Newman and the LD's were not as active in their campaigning as I thought they'd be. Perhaps they realised Newman is still toxic?

Also will be interesting if QLD can get that second Greens senator.

I'm an election junkie so this is like Christmas for me, watching it unfold (and if you think back to your family Christmases, they often end as a train wreck too).

The parties get funding ($2.91) for every first preference vote if they score over 4% nationally, so if UAP hits that, they'll score back a fraction of their advertising spend. I wouldn't underestimate the number of politically disinterested voters falling for the outright lies in their ads so it's quite possible they will do it.

 

[Consuela]

I'm an election junkie so this is like Christmas for me, watching it unfold (and if you think back to your family Christmases, they often end as a train wreck too).

The parties get funding ($2.91) for every first preference vote if they score over 4% nationally, so if UAP hits that, they'll score back a fraction of their advertising spend. I wouldn't underestimate the number of politically disinterested voters falling for the outright lies in their ads so it's quite possible they will do it.

Some of their 'economic policies' had me legitimately exasperated. But could easily see them being appealing to the the masses. I was surprised to get their last minute WHO treaty covid crap sms blast as it was the only election sms I'd gotten.

My Christmases last a fortnight so I hope it's not like one of mine. Ha!

 

[bleachy_dude]

I'm an election junkie so this is like Christmas for me, watching it unfold (and if you think back to your family Christmases, they often end as a train wreck too).

The parties get funding ($2.91) for every first preference vote if they score over 4% nationally, so if UAP hits that, they'll score back a fraction of their advertising spend. I wouldn't underestimate the number of politically disinterested voters falling for the outright lies in their ads so it's quite possible they will do it.

Is Clive invested his own money does he get that back personally or are there rules about it having to go to ‘party’ funds?

 

[timmy]

Is Clive invested his own money does he get that back personally or are there rules about it having to go to ‘party’ funds?

I've no idea. Suppose it depends on their accounting practices. He may have funded it conditionally on getting some back.

 

[bleachy_dude]

I've no idea. Suppose it depends on their accounting practices. He may have funded it conditionally on getting some back.

Not that he even needs it. Drop in the (Hole in the ) bucket for him

 

[timmy]

OK here we go!

Are we all strapped in with vast amounts of alcohol?

 

[timmy]

I'm tipping Labor wins 77 seats.

 

[Consuela]

Is Clive invested his own money does he get that back personally or are there rules about it having to go to ‘party’ funds?

Most likely loaned to the party so would get some back. You can check the records somewhere. And I doubt he'd get back any where near the amount he spent.

 

[timmy]

Most likely loaned to the party so would get some back. You can check the records somewhere. And I doubt he'd get back any where near the amount he spent.

Didn't they say he spent $100m? If they get 4% of the first prefs, they'd get less than $2m back.

 

[Consuela]

Ewwwwwww why are we listening to the Beetrooter.

 

[Consuela]

Didn't they say he spent $100m? If they get 4% of the first prefs, they'd get less than $2m back.

Geez. So much money spent on a vanity project.

 

[timmy]

Bit early but this is worth keeping an eye on:

2022 Federal Election - AEC Tally Room

Tally Room - The Official Election Results

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

 

[Consuela]

Bit early but this is worth keeping an eye on:

2022 Federal Election - AEC Tally Room

Tally Room - The Official Election Results

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

I've got that and the ABC results page up as it's a bit easier to follow.

 

[timmy]

Oh no... when the Coalition is leading early on, it's usually framed as "they're country booths that usually favour the Coalition" but in my experience Labor rarely comes from behind to win. They'd better pull a fucking rabbit out of their hat this time.